生态科学2025，Vol.44Issue(2)：20-30,11.DOI:10.14108/j.cnki.1008-8873.2025.02.003
基于地理统计与系统动力学的多年冻土活动层厚度模拟研究
Simulation of permafrost active layer thickness based on geographic statistics and system dynamics
摘要
Abstract
Global warming has caused the permafrost active layer thickness to increase on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,and the permafrost degradation problems have become increasingly severe.Permafrost degradation threatens the local ecological environment and infrastructure security in cold regions.Accurately modeling permafrost active layer thickness(ALT)will help researchers formulate solutions for mitigating the impact of climate change on the cryosphere.In this study,the ALT model is constructed by combining geostatistics and system dynamics,which breaks through the data-bridging problem between SD and GIS over a wide area,improves ALT calculation accuracy,and realizes spatiotemporal visualization.This paper takes the Hoh Xil-Anduo station of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway as the research area.The simulation results show that the accuracy of ALT modeling is over 95%,and the annual increase in ALT is 0.005 m·a-1 in this area.It is also pointed out that climate change and human disturbance are permafrost active layer degradation`s determining factors.关键词
多年冻土/活动层厚度/系统动力学/动态数据交换Key words
permafrost/active layer thickness/system dynamics/dynamic data exchange分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
俞阳,闵雪峰,赵锐,孟祥连,李传松..基于地理统计与系统动力学的多年冻土活动层厚度模拟研究[J].生态科学,2025,44(2):20-30,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42101315 （）
41571520) （）
四川省自然科学基金项目(2022NSFSC1012) （2022NSFSC1012）
四川循环经济研究中心课题(XHJJ-2002 （）
XHJJ-2005) （）
中国中铁股份有限公司科技研究开发计划项目(科研院2022-重大-01-XZ01 （）
科研院2022-重大-01-XZ02) （）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2682021CX069 （）
2682021ZTPY088) （）
中国工程院咨询研究项目(Q113520S02003) （Q113520S02003）
