石油石化绿色低碳2025，Vol.10Issue(3)：1-9,9.DOI:10.20131/j.cnki.syshlsdt.20250425.001
关税对中国进口美国能源商品的影响分析
Impact of Tariff Escalation on China's Energy Imports from the U.S
闫建涛 1陆文龙 2佟奕凡2
作者信息
- 1. 捷诚能源控股有限公司,北京 100020
- 2. 国家管网集团液化天然气接收站管理公司,天津 300000
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
This study investigates the dynamic evolution of China-U.S.tariff policies,combined with import volume and price data of China's energy and chemical products,to compare the phased characteristics and policy transmission mechanisms.By constructing a trade dependence index and a supply chain risk model,we systematically evaluate the structural evolution of China's imports of energy and chemical commodities from the U.S.,dependency thresholds for key categories,and the trade suppression effects of sustained tariff increases.The study reveals the fluctuation of US tariff policy has three boundary conditions of"cost threshold,industrial substitution elasticity,and strategic game".Policy volatility significantly amplifies risk exposure in imports of basic chemical raw materials such as olefins and aromatics.Accordingly,differentiated response strategies are proposed:short-term measures include regional supply chain diversification,a reserve capacity doubling plan,and innovative energy futures contracts to hedge risks;medium-to-long-term strategies focus on technological upgrading and vertical industrial chain integration to realize import substitution of high-end advanced materials.This research provides decision-making support for ensuring energy and chemical trade security under complex tariff scenarios.关键词
中美关税/贸易摩擦/边界条件/能源化工/供应链风险/进口替代战略Key words
China-U.S.tariff/trade conflict/volatility boundaries/energy chemicals/supply chain risk/import substitution strategy分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
闫建涛,陆文龙,佟奕凡..关税对中国进口美国能源商品的影响分析[J].石油石化绿色低碳,2025,10(3):1-9,9.
