中国实用神经疾病杂志2025，Vol.28Issue(7)：805-810,6.DOI:10.12083/SYSJ.240517
基于多参数特征构建预测模型评估颈部动脉夹层患者发生AIS的风险
A predictive model constructed based on multi-parameter features to assess the risk of AIS in patients with cervical artery dissection
摘要
Abstract
Objective To evaluate the risk of acute ischemic stroke(AIS)in patients with cervical artery dissection(CAD)by constructing a predictive model based on multi-parameter characteristics.Methods A total of 56 CAD patients diagnosed and hospitalized in the Subei People's Hospital in Jiangsu Province from December 2021 to December 2023 were included as study objects,and the patients were divided into AIS group and non-AIS group according to imaging findings.Univariate analysis was conducted to compare the general data,laboratory indicators and imaging results of the two groups,and Logistic regression analysis was conducted to analyze the risk factors for AIS in CAD patients.Nomogram prediction model for AIS occurrence in CAD patients was constructed according to risk factors,and the predictive efficiency of Nomogram was analyzed by ROC curve.Results The proportion of patients with diabetes mellitus,the proportion of patients diagnosed before referral and the proportion of patients with dizziness in the AIS group were significantly higher than those in the non-AIS group,and the proportion of emergency admission and direct admission was significantly lower than that in the non-AIS group(P<0.05).The proportions of patients with HDL≤1.0 mmol/L,double-luminal syndrome,luminal thrombosis,severe luminal stenosis and grade 2 wall strengthening in the AIS group were significantly higher than those in the non-AIS group(P<0.05).Logistic regression analysis showed that diabetes mellitus,diagnosis before referral,dizziness,HDL≤1.0 mmol/L,double lumen sign,intracavity thrombosis,severe lumen stenosis,and grade 2 wall strengthening were risk factors for AIS in CAD patients(P<0.05),and emergency admission and direct admission were protective factors for AIS in CAD patients.The calibration curve showed that the consistency index(C-index)was 0.785 and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test χ2=6.323,P=0.625.The AUC of ROC curve was 0.829(95%CI:0.768-0.891,P<0.001),the sensitivity and specificity was 81.48%and 74.07%,respectively.Conclusion The Nomogram model based on diabetes mellitus,diagnosis before referral,dizziness,HDL≤1.0 mmol/L,double lumen sign,intracavity thrombosis,severe lumen stenosis,grade 2 wall strengthening,and admission mode has good predictive ability for AIS occurrence in CAD patients.关键词
颈部动脉夹层/急性缺血性脑卒中/危险因素/列线图/ROC曲线/预测模型Key words
Cervical artery dissection/Acute ischemic stroke/Risk factors/Nomogram/ROC curve/Prediction model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
倪婷婷,于传山,顾志娥,崔霞..基于多参数特征构建预测模型评估颈部动脉夹层患者发生AIS的风险[J].中国实用神经疾病杂志,2025,28(7):805-810,6.基金项目
江苏省人兽共患病学重点实验室"护馨基金"2021年度开放课题(编号:HX2104) （编号:HX2104）
