华南地质2025，Vol.41Issue(2)：277-287,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2097-0013.2025.02.003
考虑时间序列的阶跃型滑坡位移预测
Displacement Prediction of Step-like Landslide Considering Time Series:A Case Study of Muping Landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area
摘要
Abstract
A landslide displacement prediction model considering time series analysis is proposed for the landslides with step-like deformation in the China Three Gorges Reservoir area.The model first employs the Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition(CEEMD)method to decompose the cumulative landslide displacement into trend and fluctuation components.A regression model is then used to fit the trend displacement.Based on the response analysis between landslide deformation characteristics and triggering factors,a Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)model is adopted to predict the fluctuation displacement.Finally,the predicted displacements of each component are superimposed to achieve cumulative landslide displacement prediction.In this paper,the CEEMD-LSTM model is applied to predict the displacement of Muping landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.Taking the step-like the Muping landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area as an example,this study applies the CEEMD-LSTM model for displacement prediction and conducts a comparative analysis with the prediction results of other models,including Convolutional Neural Networks(CNN);Random Forest(RF)and the improved Particle Swarm Optimization-Support Vector Machine(PSO-SVM)models.The results demonstrate that compared to other common machine learning and deep learning models,the time series-aware CEEMD-LSTM model achieves higher prediction accuracy and more prominent prediction advantages at step points.This model could provide theoretical foundations and data support for real-time displacement prediction and early warning of a step-like landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.关键词
阶跃型滑坡/时间序列/互补集合经验模态分解/长短时记忆神经网络/墓坪滑坡/三峡库区Key words
step-like landslide/time series/Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition/Long Short-Term Memory/the Muping landslide/the Three Gorges Reservoir area分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
闫巍,潘安邦,龙晶晶,侯时平,高晨曦,刘明鑫..考虑时间序列的阶跃型滑坡位移预测[J].华南地质,2025,41(2):277-287,11.基金项目
湖北省自然科学基金联合基金项目(JCZRLH202501152) （JCZRLH202501152）
