长江科学院院报2025，Vol.42Issue(7)：32-41,10.DOI:10.11988/ckyyb.20240452
长江经济带水资源承载力评价及其耦合协调性分析
Assessment of Water Resources Carrying Capacity and Analysis of Its Coupling Coordination in the Yangtze River Economic Belt
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This study focuses on the Yangtze River Economic Belt and constructs a water resources carrying capacity evaluation system that covers four subsystems:water resources,society,economy and ecological environment.The aim is to reveal the current status and future development trend of water resources carrying capaci-ty in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and to provide a scientific basis and decision-making reference for the ra-tional planning and utilization of water resources,the adjustment and optimization of industrial structure,and eco-logical environment protection within the region.[Methods]The spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of water resources carrying capacity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2012 to 2021 were analyzed using the TOPSIS method and the standard deviation ellipse method.Combined with the coupling coordination degree model,the coor-dinated development level among the subsystems within the water resources carrying capacity system was further in-vestigated.To better understand the future development trend of water resources carrying capacity,the grey predic-tion model was applied to predict its trend over the next five years.[Results]The study revealed the dynamic changes in water resources carrying capacity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt during the study period,along with its spatial distribution characteristics and evolution trends.Between 2012 and 2021,the water resources carry-ing capacity showed an overall fluctuating upward trend,gradually improving from an alert state to a good state,in-dicating a significant enhancement in the region's water resources carrying capacity.Spatially,the center of water resources carrying capacity shifted southwestward toward areas with relatively lower capacity,which may be related to regional economic development patterns,industrial restructuring,and differences in water use efficiency.Regard-ing system coupling and coordination,except for 2012,the coupling degree between subsystems reached a high coupling stage,and the coupling coordination evaluation gradually shifted from near disorder to good coordination,demonstrating continuously improving coordinated development and enhanced synergy among the subsystems.Analy-sis of influencing factors identified the proportion of tertiary industry,urbanization rate,and per capita daily domes-tic water consumption as the three factors most strongly correlated with water resources carrying capacity.Changes in these factors significantly affected its increase or decrease.The water resources carrying capacity was projected to show a positive development trend over the next five years.[Conclusions]It is recommended that the upstream ar-eas develop water-saving irrigation,control fertilizer usage,and enhance urbanization levels;the midstream areas develop reclaimed water use,strengthen sewage treatment,and accelerate industrial transformation;and the down-stream areas control population growth,promote water conservation and environmental protection,restore ecosys-tems,and increase forest coverage.The research findings provide a valuable scientific basis for the efficient man-agement and utilization of water resources in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,as well as for promoting the coordi-nated development of the regional economy and society,and for achieving sustainable development goals in the region.关键词
水资源承载力/熵权-CRITIC-TOPSIS模型/耦合协调度/关联度/GM(1,1)模型/长江经济带Key words
water resources carrying capacity/entropy weights-CRITIC-TOPSIS Model/coupling coordination/de-gree of relevance/GM(1,1)model/Yangtze River Economic Belt分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
熊鹰,蒋一心,陈斯玄..长江经济带水资源承载力评价及其耦合协调性分析[J].长江科学院院报,2025,42(7):32-41,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(U21A2010) （U21A2010）
湖南省社会科学基金重点项目(23ZDB016) （23ZDB016）
自然资源部南方丘陵区自然资源监测监管重点实验室开放基金课题(NRMSSHR2023Y17) （NRMSSHR2023Y17）
