长江科学院院报2025，Vol.42Issue(7)：42-51,10.DOI:10.11988/ckyyb.20240561
基于FLUS-InVEST模型的石羊河流域水土资源空间匹配评价
Evaluation of Spatial Matching Between Water and Soil Resources in Shiyang River Basin Based on FLUS-InVEST Model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Taking the Shiyang River Basin,a typical arid inland river basin,as the study area,this study aims to explore the spatial distribution and matching patterns of agricultural water and soil resources under dif-ferent scenarios of future land use change,identify the supply-demand imbalance and its causes in the river basin,and provide support for the planning and decision-making of sustainable agricultural development at the river basin scale.[Methods]Using the FLUS model,this study simulated the spatial patterns of land use of the Shiyang River Basin in 2035 under three scenarios:cropland protection,natural development,and ecological conservation.By in-troducing the agricultural water and soil resource equivalent coefficient,this study established a matching assess-ment model for future agricultural water and soil resources in the Shiyang River Basin.Combined with the water yield module of the In VEST model,this study predicted spatiotemporal variations in water yield under three scenari-os in 2035 and evaluated the spatiotemporal matching relationships of agricultural water and soil resources in the Shiyang River Basin.[Results](1)All seven county-level administrative regions in the Shiyang River Basin showed varying degrees of severe water shortage,indicating an overall imbalance in agricultural water and soil re-sources,with water supply unable to meet the demand of cropland-based agricultural production.(2)The spatial pattern of water and soil resource matching in the Shiyang River Basin was generally better in the west than in the east of the basin.The Gini coefficient ranged from 0.2 to 0.3,showing a slightly increasing trend but still indicating a relatively balanced condition.The average water and soil resource matching coefficient was projected to be 797 m3/hm2 in 2035 under different scenarios,compared to 640 m3/hm2 in 2020,showing an overall improvement.(3)Although water yield increased to some extent within each county-level region under different scenarios in 2035,the imbalance in actual water utilization and distribution continued to deepen over time.The continuous ex-pansion of cropland under the natural development and cropland protection scenarios made it more difficult to bal-ance the supply and demand of agricultural water and soil resources in Gulang County,Minqin County,and Liang-zhou District.[Conclusion]For regions with poor balance between precipitation and evaporation,such as Liang-zhou District,a typical resource-based water-scarce region,it is recommended to alleviate water shortage through interregional water transfer and the introduction of external water sources.In regions where agricultural development is dominant,it is advisable to accelerate agricultural modernization,reduce water consumption per hectare,and ad-just crop structures.For regions with poor matching between water and soil resources,such as Minqin County,where both resource-based and engineering-related water scarcity coexist,it is proposed to address the imbalance through interregional water diversion and transfer,systematically improving the efficiency of water resource develop-ment and utilization.关键词
水土资源匹配/FLUS模型/InVEST模型/基尼系数/石羊河流域Key words
water and soil resource matching/FLUS model/InVEST model/Gini coefficient/Shiyang River Basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
侯慧敏,王辉,王鹏全,曹进军..基于FLUS-InVEST模型的石羊河流域水土资源空间匹配评价[J].长江科学院院报,2025,42(7):42-51,10.基金项目
甘肃省水利技术推广项目(23GSLK044,22GSLK036,22GSLK037,23GSLK045,23GSLK046) （23GSLK044,22GSLK036,22GSLK037,23GSLK045,23GSLK046）
