财经理论与实践2025，Vol.46Issue(4)：28-34,7.DOI:10.16339/j.cnki.hdxbcjb.2025.04.004
全球金融周期的就业市场超调效应
The Overshoot Effect of the Global Financial Cycle on Employment Market
摘要
Abstract
Based on the unbalanced panel data of China's listed companies from 2006 to 2022,this paper uses a two-way fixed effect model to analyzes the impact of the global financial cycle on China's employment market.The results show that the fluctuations of the global financial cycle lead to the overshoot of China's employment market.When the global finance is in the boom pe-riod,the phenomenon of excess employees in Chinese enterprises increases.When the global fi-nance turns to the recession period,the phenomenon of excess employees in enterprises decrea-ses,and even underemployment occurs.The mechanism test shows that corporate financing con-straints,labor mobility and economic policy uncertainty are the main transmission paths of the global financial cycle affecting corporate excess employees.In view of this,it is suggested to im-plement countercyclical talent policies,optimize the enterprise financing environment,and im-prove the expected management of economic policies to hedge against job market fluctuations caused by the global financial cycle.关键词
全球金融周期/就业市场/超额雇员/融资约束Key words
global financial cycle/employment market/excess employees/financing con-straints分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
胡晓涛,李宣,刘宇卓..全球金融周期的就业市场超调效应[J].财经理论与实践,2025,46(4):28-34,7.基金项目
安徽省社会科学创新发展研究课题(2022CX190) （2022CX190）
国家社会科学基金一般项目(23BJL008) （23BJL008）
安徽省高等学校科学研究重点项目(2022AH050053) （2022AH050053）
