创新科技2025，Vol.25Issue(7)：26-44,19.DOI:10.19345/j.cxkj.1671-0037.2025.7.3
人工智能对产业结构高级化的影响
The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Industrial Structure Up-grading
摘要
Abstract
In the context of the widespread application of digital technology,artificial intelli-gence(AI)is gradually and deeply integrated with economic development.The application sce-narios in various industries constantly expand,injecting new impetus into the industrial structure upgrading(ISU).In this paper,using the panel data of 284 prefecture-level cities in China from 2015 to 2022,we adopt a multi-period double-difference model to measure the degree of ISU by using the proportion of output value of tertiary industry and secondary industry,and conduct a quasi-natural experiment by constructing a dummy variable based on the policy of"China's New Generation Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Development Pilot Zone"to study the im-pact of AI on ISU and its functioning mechanism.Heterogeneity tests are also conducted to ana-lyze variations based on geographical location and administrative level of cities to understand the differing roles of AI across regions.The empirical study reveals several key findings:①The de-velopment of AI promotes the ISU.The conclusions remain reliable after various robustness tests such as the parallel trend test,placebo test,and exclusion of relevant policy interference.②Mechanism analysis shows that AI promotes the ISU through three mediating variables,namely,new quality productivity,digital financial inclusion,and innovation levels,indicating the intrin-sic mechanism of AI on the ISU.③Heterogeneity analysis finds that the impact of AI on the ISU is more significant in eastern,coastal,and high-administrative-level cities.The main reasons for this lie in the differences in economic foundations,the significant knowledge spillover effect and technology diffusion characteristics of AI technology,and the high quality and ability of lo-cal administrators,respectively.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward tar-geted policies and development suggestions from three aspects.First,the government should pay attention to the role of AI in the ISU,and expand the application scenarios of AI in various indus-tries by improving the AI-supporting infrastructure to promote the intelligence,sustainability,and integration of the industrial structure.Second,the government should focus on developing new urban productivity,fostering digital inclusive finance,and enhancing innovation levels,so as to give full play to the effectiveness of these three key factors in the ISU.Third,the govern-ment should leverage the benefits of AI to support the advancement of the industrial structure,tailored to regional resource endowments and local conditions.Eastern regions,coastal areas,and high-administrative-level cities should make full use of their policy,financial,infrastruc-ture,and talent advantages to develop the AI industry.Meanwhile,western regions,inland ereas and low-administrative-level cities should utilize their resource advantages to absorb some of the extended AI industries in the eastern regions,coastal areas and high-administrative-level cities.This paper provides empirical evidence for promoting high-quality economic development and industrial transformation in China from the perspective of AI-enabled ISU.关键词
人工智能/产业结构高级化/新质生产力/数字普惠金融/创新水平Key words
artificial intelligence/industrial structure upgrading/new quality productive forces/digital inclusive finance/innovation level分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
赵玉帛,申嘉慧,刘焕,韩乐贤..人工智能对产业结构高级化的影响[J].创新科技,2025,25(7):26-44,19.基金项目
河南省软科学项目"数实产业技术融合赋能河南制造业企业创新韧性的机制与提升策略研究"(252400410090) （252400410090）
河南省博士后科研资助项目"数字经济创新生态系统韧性监测、驱动机制与治理研究"(HN2025144) （HN2025144）
河南省高校科技创新团队支持计划"数字化转型与企业治理"(24IRTSTHN027) （24IRTSTHN027）
河南财经政法大学校级研究课题"数字经济赋能专精特新企业创新韧性的提升机制与实现路径研究"(23HNCDXJ19). （23HNCDXJ19）
