大气科学2025，Vol.49Issue(3)：681-698,18.DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2306.23059
不同模式背景场对复杂山地百米级温度和风场融合预报影响的对比
Comparison of the Influences of Different Model Backgrounds on the 100-m Resolution Integrated Forecasts for the Temperature and Wind over Complex Terrain
摘要
Abstract
This study evaluates the impact of different NWP(Numerical Weather Prediction)model backgrounds on the accuracy of fusion analysis for the surface temperature at 2-m height and wind at 10-m height,as well as hourly forecasts for the future 1-24 h at a high spatial resolution of 100 m.The research focuses on the outdoor mountainous competition areas of the Beijing Winter Olympics,utilizing RISE(Rapid-refresh Integrated Seamless Ensemble)system.This approach integrates the mesoscale CMA-BJ model with a 3-km resolution,and the global-scale ECMWF model with a resolution of 0.125°.The results show that:(1)High-resolution refined fusion analysis products at 100-m resolution can be formed by using different model backgrounds through RISE downscaling over complex terrain and the rapid integration of observational data.However,the influence of different model background fields varies obviously depending on the meteorological elements.(2)For temperature analysis,the spatial distribution of RISE analysis field based on the forecast data of CAM-BJ and ECMWF models is basically the same,and MAE(mean absolute error)of analysis is less than 0.2℃.(3)For wind analysis,the refinement level of RISE high-precision wind field can be improved by adopting high-resolution regional model background rather than coarse resolution global model.(4)For temperature forecasts,the predictive precision using the ECMWF model as the background is significantly better than that of the CMA-BJ model.Furthermore,temperature forecasting accuracy improves consistently,with the average forecast MAE reduction rates of 10.5%for the Winter Olympic alpine stations and 7.0%for all stations within the RISE region.(5)For wind forecasts,the 1-6 h forecast MAE of the RISE for Winter Olympic alpine stations based on CAM-BJ and ECMWF as backgrounds is 1.42 m s-1 and 1.30 m s-1,and the 7-24 h forecast MAE is 1.52 m s-1 and 1.54 m s-1,respectively.The mean 1-24 h forecast MAE of all stations in RISE region is 1.38 m s-1 and 1.24 m s-1,respectively.The results of this study provide important insights into the role of model background in integrated forecasting at 100-m resolution.The study holds important scientific significance and practical value for improving the accuracy of weather forecasting in complex terrain.关键词
模式背景场/百米级融合预报/复杂山地/北京冬奥会Key words
NWP(Numerical Weather Prediction)background/100-m resolution integrated forecast/Complex terrain/Beijing Winter Olympics分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
宋林烨,杨璐,程丛兰,陈明轩,曹伟华,吴剑坤..不同模式背景场对复杂山地百米级温度和风场融合预报影响的对比[J].大气科学,2025,49(3):681-698,18.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目2022YFC3004103,国家自然科学基金项目42275012,北京市自然科学基金项目8212025,北京市气象局科技项目BMBKJ202004011 National Key R&D Program of China(Grant 2022YFC3004103),National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant 42275012),Natural Science Foundation of Beijing(Grant 8212025),Science and Technology Project of Beijing Meteorological Bureau(Grant BMBKJ202004011) （Grant 2022YFC3004103）
