大气科学2025，Vol.49Issue(3)：699-710,12.DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2305.23067
两种分辨率全球模式对中国区域天气模拟能力分析
Analysis of the Ability of Two Global Models with Different Resolutions to Simulate Regional Weather in China
摘要
Abstract
Improving numerical weather prediction depends on enhancing the model's physical processes,initial fields,and spatial resolution.Among these,improving model resolution has proven to be an effective method for boosting prediction accuracy.Using the global forecast system,this study compares two models with different resolutions,T1534(13 km)and T254(55 km),to forecast temperature,pressure,wind speed,and precipitation across China.The results show that in simulating daily air pressure over China,the models perform best in North China.Across seven subregions,the root mean square error decreases significantly as the resolution increases.For daily temperature simulations,the eastern region shows better accuracy compared to the western region.However,when simulating wind speed in the northwest region,the root mean square error increases slightly with higher resolution.Overall,model variables with strong periodic changes,such as air pressure and temperature,are better simulated than those with weaker periodic changes,like wind speed.This difference is primarily attributed to the localized and terrain-sensitive nature of wind speed.A heavy precipitation event in Shandong on 10 August 2019,demonstrated that the two models with different resolutions effectively simulated the precipitation characteristics and matched the observed precipitation falling area.However,the high-resolution model exhibited greater accuracy,with lower deviation scores across various precipitation grades.In this heavy precipitation process,relative humidity was close to saturation,creating favorable conditions for condensation.The high-resolution model captured this more precisely,showing enhanced relative humidity and finer structural detail.Meanwhile,the central pressure of the low-level cyclone simulated by the high-resolution model was lower than that of the low-resolution model.This resulted in a stronger cyclone and a more intense convective precipitation process.关键词
全球数值预报系统/不同分辨率/中国区域/极端降水/模拟能力Key words
Global Forecast System/Different resolution/China/Extreme precipitation/Capability of simulation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
贾佳,丹利,詹思玙..两种分辨率全球模式对中国区域天气模拟能力分析[J].大气科学,2025,49(3):699-710,12.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目2023YFF0805501,国家自然科学基金项目42141017 National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant 2023YFF0805501),National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant 42141017) （Grant 2023YFF0805501）
