当代经济科学2025，Vol.47Issue(4)：1-19,19.DOI:10.20069/j.cnki.DJKX.202504001
美联储政策冲击下中国财政政策与货币政策的协同效应
Fiscal-Monetary Policy Coordination in China Under Federal Reserve Policy Shocks
摘要
Abstract
Enhancing coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is a top priority in deepening China's macroeconomic regulation system reform.This paper examines the dynamic effects of strengthening fiscal-monetary policy coordination under Federal Reserve monetary policy shocks by constructing a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium(NK-DSGE)model that incorporates capital controls and foreign exchange intervention features,while integrating policy coordination approaches such as fiscal deficit monetization and financial support for fiscal expansion. The study finds that:First,relying solely on monetary policy cannot mitigate the suppressive effect of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes on China's aggregate demand,necessitating coordinated efforts between fiscal and monetary policies.Second,the policy coordination approach of fiscal deficit monetization fails to effectively alleviate the adverse impact of Federal Reserve rate hikes on China's economy;instead,it amplifies macroeconomic fluctuations and triggers a"debt-deflation trap".Third,the policy coordination approach of financial support for fiscal expansion demonstrates effects such as conserving policy space and stabilizing economic fluctuations.Further analysis from the perspective of structural tax cuts shows that combining financial support for fiscal expansion with structural tax cuts positively enhances social welfare.Additionally,counterfactual simulations indicate that the policy coordination approach of financial support for fiscal expansion effectively mitigates the negative impact of Federal Reserve rate hikes on China,ensuring economic stabilization and recovery. The marginal contributions of this paper are threefold.First,it examines fiscal-monetary policy coordination under Federal Reserve rate hike shocks while incorporating capital controls and foreign exchange intervention.Second,it moves beyond the simplified settings of traditional DSGE models for fiscal-monetary policy coordination by integrating fiscal deficit monetization and financial support for fiscal expansion into the NK-DSGE framework and comparing their performance across multiple dimensions.Third,under heterogeneous household settings,it employs weighted average consumption compensation variation as a measure of social welfare to quantify the welfare-enhancing effects of combining financial support for fiscal expansion with structural tax cuts. The findings provide important policy implications for deepening China's macroeconomic regulation system.First,strengthening fiscal-monetary policy coordination can form a powerful policy synergy.Second,innovating the policy coordination approach of financial support for fiscal expansion offers advantages such as conserving monetary policy space and effectively stabilizing economic fluctuations,providing robust support for growth.Third,policymakers should adopt a cautious stance toward fiscal deficit monetization—avoiding blind adherence to Western theories in favor of fiscal policies aligned with China's actual development needs.Lastly,promoting growth through structural tax cuts,particularly when combined with financial support for fiscal expansion,can positively enhance social welfare.Further increasing structural tax cuts may also foster a virtuous cycle of mutually reinforcing consumption and investment.关键词
美联储加息/宏观调控政策/货币政策/财政政策/政策协同/结构性减税/财政赤字货币化/金融支持财政扩张Key words
Federal Reserve interest rate hikes/macroeconomic regulation policies/monetary policy/fiscal policy/policy coordination/structural tax cuts/fiscal deficit monetization/financial support for fiscal expansion引用本文复制引用
刘震,张卫,徐宝亮,史代敏..美联储政策冲击下中国财政政策与货币政策的协同效应[J].当代经济科学,2025,47(4):1-19,19.基金项目
国家社会科学基金青年项目"央行数字货币引致金融脱媒风险的生成机制与应对策略研究"(24CJL062) （24CJL062）
四川省自然科学基金青年科学基金项目"数字经济赋能四川县域经济高质量发展的作用机制与优化路径研究"(2024NSFSC1086). （2024NSFSC1086）
