地理空间信息2025，Vol.23Issue(7)：47-54,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-4623.2025.07.010
社会发展视角下中原地级市人口时空演变与影响因素分析
Population Spatio-temporal Evolution and Influence Factor Analysis of Prefecture-level Cities in the Central Plains from the Perspective of Social Development
摘要
Abstract
Based on panel data of population and socio-economic statistics of Luoyang City,a typical prefecture-level city in the Central Plains region,from 2012 to 2021,we used the order-scale rule,population distribution structure index and population spatial gravity center transfer model to investigate the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of population distribution,used global spatial autocorrelation and hot-spot analysis methods to study the spatial pattern of population,and used GeoDetector model and geographically weighted regression(GWR)model to analyze the influence factors of population changes from the perspective of social development.The research results indicate that ①the population in Luoyang is predominantly concentrated in small and medium-sized counties,with a continuously increasing population density and significant regional differences.Overall,the spatial distribution presents high in the northeast and low in the southwest pattern.②The imbalance index and concentration index of population distribution show an increasing trend from 2012 to 2021,indicating a trend towards population concentration.The population gravity center is located in Yichuan County and exhibits a southwest to northeast movement.③The spatial distribution of population exhibits distinct spatial clustering characteristics,with the northeast region being a significant hotspot.④The levels of service industry,urbanization,and medical care are consistently strong long-term dominant factors,with the synergy between economic development and urbanization being the most robust.Per capita GDP and the number of medical institution transfer from positive to negative impact,while the total retail sales of social consumer goods transfers from negative to positive impact,with a tendency towards a weakening effect.The proportion of secondary industry demonstrates strong spatial heterogeneity.关键词
中原地级市/人口分布/时空格局/地理探测器/地理加权回归模型Key words
prefecture-level city in the Central Plains/population distribution/spatio-temporal pattern/GeoDetector/GWR model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
上官书睿,许宁,孙奇,董新宇..社会发展视角下中原地级市人口时空演变与影响因素分析[J].地理空间信息,2025,23(7):47-54,8.基金项目
河南省科技攻关资助项目(232102320249) （232102320249）
商丘师范学院博士人才科研启动经费资助项目(7001100). （7001100）
