电网技术2025，Vol.49Issue(7)：2819-2829,中插46-中插47,13.DOI:10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2024.0560
电力现货背景下考虑双重不确定性的新能源基地鲁棒优化模型
Robust Optimization Model of New Energy Base Considering Double Uncertainty in the Context of Electricity Spotting Market
摘要
Abstract
With the continuous improvement of China's electricity trading mechanism,to build a multi-source complementary system to form a new energy base and jointly participate in the electricity spot market is the inevitable future development trend.However,in the process of renewable energy bases participating in the spot market,they face the double uncertainties of renewable energy output and spot electricity price,leading to a decline in revenue stability.For this reason,the article first analyses the operation mode of renewable energy base,including"wind power-PV-thermal power-pumped storage,"to participate in the spot market.Secondly,a renewable energy-based operation optimization model under deterministic scenarios is constructed,and confidence gap decision theory(CGDT)and conditional value at risk(CVaR)are used to deal with the uncertainties of renewable energy and spot electricity prices.Then,the deterministic model is transformed into CGDT-CVaR model.Finally,the robustness and validity of the model are verified through examples,and sensitivity analysis is carried out for confidence level and significance level.The results show that the CGDT-CVaR model can effectively deal with the negative impact of uncertainty factors and improve the robustness and economy of the operation plan of renewable energy bases.Adjusting the significance level and confidence level to adjust the risk propensity of the model to provide a reference for decision-makers.关键词
双重不确定性/多源互补系统/现货市场/CGDT-CVaR/交易决策Key words
double uncertainties/multi-source complementary/spot market/CGDT-CVaR/trading decisions分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
潘昱树,郭欣雨,汪悦萍,谭忠富..电力现货背景下考虑双重不确定性的新能源基地鲁棒优化模型[J].电网技术,2025,49(7):2819-2829,中插46-中插47,13.基金项目
国家电网有限公司总部管理科技项目(1400-202224249A-1-1-ZN).Project Supported by Science and Technology Project of State Grid Corporation of China(1400-202224249A-1-1-ZN). （1400-202224249A-1-1-ZN）
