动物医学进展2025，Vol.46Issue(8)：121-127,7.
基于系统动力学对羊布鲁氏菌病防控措施优化分析
Optimization Analysis of Brucellosis Prevention and Control Measures in Sheep Based on System Dynamics
摘要
Abstract
By establishing a system dynamics model for brucellosis prevention and control,the main factors and feedback mechanisms of the sheep brucellosis system were investigated in order to provide theoretical support for decision-making on brucellosis prevention and control in sheep.The model is mainly composed of transmission body,infection substructure,detection substructure and environment substructure,and three measures,immunization,detection culling and disinfection,were introduced to evaluate the impact of different measures on disease prevention and control.Feedback influence of infection rate and contact coeffi-cient on the effectiveness of the prevention and control of brucellosis in the sensitivity analysis were obvi-ous;although vaccination,detection and culling and disinfection are effective brucellosis prevention and con-trol measures,the implementation of a single measure cannot eradicate brucellosis,and the combination of the three measures is the most effective prevention and control measure;in addition,the analysis concluded that the introduction of immunization measures in the case of detection and culling reduces the peak value of the infection,but it also leads to the prolongation of the infection cycle,making the brucellosis preven-tion and control system more complex.Using a system dynamics model to analyze the prevention and control ef-fectiveness of brucellosis in sheep aids for quantifying the risk factors of infectious diseases.关键词
系统动力学/布鲁氏菌病/SIR仓室结构/反馈机制/羊Key words
System dynamics/Brucellosis/SIR hamartia structure/Feedback mechanism/Sheep分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
何曾文,马金锐,张浩浩,王子坚,梁斌,曹青,薛慧文,苟惠天..基于系统动力学对羊布鲁氏菌病防控措施优化分析[J].动物医学进展,2025,46(8):121-127,7.基金项目
现代丝路寒旱农业科技支撑项目(GSLK-2022-17) （GSLK-2022-17）
国家自然科学基金项目(32060822,31960726) （32060822,31960726）
