工程研究——跨学科视野中的工程2025，Vol.17Issue(4)：446-460,15.DOI:10.3724/j.issn.1674-4969.20240017
基于SNA的未来社区EPC项目设计阶段成本风险控制
Cost Risk Control of Future Community EPC Project Design Stage Based on SNA
摘要
Abstract
This study aims to enhance the cost risk management capabilities of general contractors,strengthen enterprise competitiveness,and achieve high-quality and cost-effective community development goals.A proactive approach to risk prevention and control is adopted,following a closed-loop management sequence of risk identification,assessment,response,and monitoring.A cost risk network model is developed for the design phase of future community engineering procurement Construction(EPC)projects.Initially,a literature review and expert interviews were conducted to preliminarily identify cost risk factors in the design phase of future community EPC projects.Subsequent visits to the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's website allowed for the retrieval of published project implementation plans from pilot future community projects.These were used to organize risk factors into a structured list and compare them with the initially established risk framework.This comparison tested the alignment between the preliminary risk factors and actual cases,resulting in the finalized cost risk factor system.A questionnaire,informed by the influence relationships among 23 risk factors,was then designed.Both paper-based and online survey formats were utilized to gather structured interview responses and evaluations from professionals involved in the renovation of old residential areas or future community construction.A total of 300 questionnaires were distributed,with 256 returned;12 were invalid,yielding an effective response rate of 81.33%.Survey participants included project general contractors,construction units,design institutes,supervision units,and consulting firms to ensure the reliability of the collected data. The survey results were used to construct an adjacency matrix,and the Netdraw software generated a network diagram illustrating the relationships between risk factors.Social network analysis(SNA)was employed to visually and quantitatively examine the risk network at both the whole network and individual levels.Block model analysis,combined with measures of point degree centrality,betweenness centrality,and the brokerage index,was used to investigate the conduction pathways and interrelationships among various risk elements,identifying key risks and critical paths. From the perspective of the general contractor,cost risk control strategies for the design phase of future community EPC projects were proposed and their effectiveness evaluated.The findings indicate that risk management efforts should concentrate on seven pivotal risks,including changes in industry norms and design principles,lax key contract terms and technical specifications,and the unreasonable application of new products and technologies.Three primary pathways require attention:insufficient government promotion and support for future community projects→regional disparities in scenario application and adaptability. Following the implementation of risk control measures,there was a notable reduction in the closeness,clustering,and correlation among risk factors within the network.This effectively obstructed risk transmission throughout the network.The study offers strategic insights for general contractors aiming to maintain controllable cost risks in future community EPC projects,significantly contributing to the high-quality and efficient advancement of such projects.关键词
未来社区/工程总承包项目/设计阶段/成本风险/社会网络分析法Key words
future community/engineening procurement construction(EPC)projects/design phase/cost risk/social network analysis(SNA)分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
杨玉胜,刘玉婷,喻兰..基于SNA的未来社区EPC项目设计阶段成本风险控制[J].工程研究——跨学科视野中的工程,2025,17(4):446-460,15.基金项目
湖南省自然科学基金资助项目:政府投资工程招投标合谋空间形成路径及其动态仿真研究(2023JJ30056) （2023JJ30056）
