国际石油经济2025，Vol.33Issue(7)：25-36,12.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-7298.2025.07.004
中国天然气产运销系统安全评价与风险识别
Safety evaluation and risk identification of natural gas production-transportation-marketing system in China
摘要
Abstract
This study develops an integrated security assessment model for natural gas systems,evaluating safety across three dimensions:resource supply,infrastructure,and market dynamics.The model incorporates core constraints including resource availability,storage working capacity for peak-shaving,pipeline transmission capability,LNG terminal operational capacity,and end-user demand.Using actual industry data,four extreme-risk scenarios are designed:graded reduction of imported natural gas,interruption of import transportation corridors,winter supply assurance during Arctic cold spells in Northern China,and summer power shortages in Southeastern China.The model is solved using Gurobi optimization software.Results indicate significant declines in system security and demand fulfillment rates under extreme scenarios.Insufficient emergency dispatchability of gas storage emerges as the primary vulnerability.While resource availability and pipeline infrastructure remain stable,they lack operational flexibility.It proposes a"three-pillar defense framework"that including enhance storage capacity and strategic deployment,increase distribution resilience via smart pipeline networks,implement dynamic priority management based on consumption profiles;and alerts to the inverse correlation between infrastructure utilization rates and systemic security,advocating fundamental reconfiguration of supply-demand balancing mechanisms.关键词
天然气/产业链/产运销系统/极端风险场景/安全评价Key words
natural gas/supply chain/production-transportation-marketing system/extreme-risk scenarios/safety evaluation分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
张元涛,罗宏远,王德运,郑坚钦,周淑慧..中国天然气产运销系统安全评价与风险识别[J].国际石油经济,2025,33(7):25-36,12.基金项目
中国石油天然气集团有限公司科技项目"我国天然气安全发展研究"(编号:2023DQ0712). （编号:2023DQ0712）
