国际石油经济2025，Vol.33Issue(7)：66-72,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-7298.2025.07.008
2025年上半年国际石油市场回顾及下半年展望
International oil market dynamics in the first half of 2025 and prospects for the second half of 2025
孙文佳 1陈聪 2刘凯雷 1王利宁 1石洪宇1
作者信息
- 1. 中国石油集团经济技术研究院||中国石油集团油气市场模拟与价格预测重点实验室
- 2. 国家粮食和物资储备局能源储备司
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
In the first half of 2025,global oil demand growth decelerated compared to the same period in 2024,with the international oil market exhibiting a downward trajectory amid a complex and volatile global economic environment and geopolitical landscape.Demand was weakened by frequent shifts in the Trump administration's"reciprocal tariffs"policy,constraining the global oil demand increment.Supply increased due to the"OPEC+"alliance exiting additional voluntary production cuts coupled with a rebound in North American output.Volatility in international oil prices amplified as geopolitical conflicts persistently disturbed the market.For the second half of the year,the market will confront multiple challenges including slowing economic growth,inventory builds resulting from sustained supply-demand looseness,and heightened uncertainty surrounding geopolitical risks.Oil prices are consequently anticipated to persist within a weak oscillation pattern.China should prioritize adopting a three-dimensional strategy to navigate the evolving landscape,namely consolidating the domestic resource base and advancing critical energy resource exploration for increased reserves and production,encouraging oil companies to leverage the period of relatively low international oil prices to enhance upstream resource strategic layout,accelerating the development of a multi-level reserve systems,and flexibly deploying crude oil futures,options,swaps,and other financial instruments to establish risk mitigation mechanisms against price fluctuations.Synergistic integration of domestic production and supply enhancement,overseas resource expansion,and reserve capacity building will facilitate the realization of a dynamic equilibrium between energy security and operational efficiency.关键词
国际石油市场/原油需求/原油供应/地缘局势/国际油价/"欧佩克+"Key words
international oil market/crude oil demand/crude oil supply/geopolitics/international oil prices/OPEC+分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
孙文佳,陈聪,刘凯雷,王利宁,石洪宇..2025年上半年国际石油市场回顾及下半年展望[J].国际石油经济,2025,33(7):66-72,7.
