火炸药学报2025，Vol.48Issue(6)：546-554,9.DOI:10.14077/j.issn.1007-7812.202409002
基于自适应Kriging模型的发动机功能毁伤概率计算与全局重要性测度
Calculation of Functional Damage Probability and Global Importance Measure for Engine Based on Adaptive Kriging Model
郭庆 1张帆 2张明媚 3翟红波 1刘永寿3
作者信息
- 1. 西安近代化学研究所,陕西西安 710065
- 2. 国家国防科技工业局军工项目审核中心,北京 100039
- 3. 西北工业大学力学与土木建筑学院,陕西西安 710129
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Aiming at the requirements of calculating the damage probability of typical targets attacked by blast-fragmentation warhead and evaluating the importance of influence parameters,a method for calculating the function damage probability of target and analyzing the global importance measurement based on adaptive Kriging model are proposed.Taking the vehicle en-gine as the typical target and fragments as the typical damage element,the function damage probability calculation model is es-tablished by combining the function damage failure criterion with the damage tree.The calculation method of the damage prob-ability and the variable global importance measure index based on the adaptive Kriging model are proposed.The proposed method is verified by the typical examples.The results show that the proposed method can solve the function damage probabili-ty and global importance measurement index with high accuracy and efficiency,the relative error of the calculation results is within 6％,and the number of simulation calculations is reduced from tens of thousands to about 300.As the fragment diame-ter increases from 6mm to 12mm,the function damage probability increases from 0.1049 to 0.2864.As the initial velocity of fragments increases from 800m/s to 1 400m/s,the damage probability of engine function increases from 0.1272 to 0.2653.With the change of the incident angle of fragments,the change of the function damage probability of engine is mainly deter-mined by the distribution of components and the degree of difficulty of components damaged by fragments.关键词
爆炸力学/破片/发动机/毁伤概率/Kriging模型/全局重要性测度/杀爆战斗部Key words
explosion mechanic/fragment/engine/damage probability/Kriging model/global importance measure/blast-fragmentation warhead分类
军事科技引用本文复制引用
郭庆,张帆,张明媚,翟红波,刘永寿..基于自适应Kriging模型的发动机功能毁伤概率计算与全局重要性测度[J].火炸药学报,2025,48(6):546-554,9.
