经济与管理研究2025，Vol.46Issue(7)：3-21,19.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2025.07.001
智链全球:人工智能对数字贸易的影响
Intelligent Linkage for Global Trade:Impact of AI on Digital Trade
摘要
Abstract
Artificial intelligence(AI)reshapes how production factors are allocated and coordinated,bringing structural changes to trade operations.This paper empirically examines the impact of AI on digital trade and its underlying mechanisms,using panel data from 67 countries spanning the years 2005 and 2019. The findings are as follows.First,AI performance plays a crucial role in expanding digital trade.This conclusion remains valid after addressing endogeneity issues and conducting robustness tests.Second,this positive effect operates through the digital talent-driven effect and the digital supply chain optimization effect.Third,AI critically strengthens digital trade resilience.During external shocks,AI exhibits a notable buffering effect,accelerating the recovery of damaged trade relationships. This paper offers valuable insights for national governments formulating digital trade strategies and enhancing institutional governance.Extending AI coverage to small and medium-sized enterprises,traditional industries,and peripheral regions is essential to strengthen the foundation of digital trade.Governments are advised to enhance fiscal support and incentive frameworks.Strengthening digital talent pipelines is equally important.Promoting the cultivation of interdisciplinary"AI+trade"talent and enhancing cross-border supply chain coordination improve resource allocation efficiency.Governments should reinforce digital trade early warning and substitution mechanisms and foster a multi-center,highly resilient digital trade network to enhance national resilience and institutional competitiveness within the global digital economy. The marginal contributions lie in the following aspects.First,this paper introduces and analyzes the enhancement of digital human capital and the optimization of digital supply,deepening the understanding of the intrinsic linkage between AI and digital trade dynamics.While prior research acknowledges AI's role in digital trade,it remains within the traditional framework of cost compression and efficiency improvement.This paper complements existing work,focusing on how AI reshapes digital production factor allocation and coordination paradigms.Second,this paper presents the quantitative assessment of digital trade resilience from the perspective of relationship rupture and reconstruction.Earlier studies on trade resilience focused on how pandemics or natural disasters disrupt traditional trade,with limited attention to digital trade relationship rupture,recovery,or reconstruction under compounded external shocks.On this basis,this paper demonstrates AI's pivotal role in mitigating disruptions and facilitating both recovery and alternative trade pathways from a global perspective.Third,the paper provides robust empirical evidence and policy references for leveraging strategic opportunities presented by the new wave of technological revolution and industrial transformation.关键词
人工智能/数字贸易/数字人才驱动效应/数字供应链优化效应/数字贸易韧性Key words
artificial intelligence/digital trade/digital talent-driven effect/digital supply chain optimization effect/digital trade resilience分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
马梦涓,余紫菱,马莉莉..智链全球:人工智能对数字贸易的影响[J].经济与管理研究,2025,46(7):3-21,19.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目"'一带一路'数字贸易便利化对沿线国家价值链重构的影响研究:基于效率和公平的双重视角"(72204197) （72204197）
国家社会科学基金青年项目"全球数字服务贸易网络演化机制与中国应对策略研究"(24CGJ029) （24CGJ029）
