环境与职业医学2025，Vol.42Issue(5)：528-535,8.DOI:10.11836/JEOM24511
湖南省气温与伤害死亡的关联研究及未来气温相关死亡负担预估
Association between temperature and injury death and related excess death burden in Hunan Province
摘要
Abstract
[Background]Injury poses a serious threat to human health.As global warming continues to in-tensify,there is an urgent need to explore the impact of temperature changes on injury deaths.However limited research has focused on this issue. [Objective]To investigate the relationship between daily mean temperature change(Tm)and injury death,as well as to estimate the associated future death burden in Hunan Province. [Methods]We employed an individual-level,time-stratified case-crossing design to establish a conditional logistic regression model to analyze the exposure-response relationship between daily mean temperature change and injury death in Hunan Province from 2013 to 2018.Consequently,we conducted subgroup analysis of gender,age group,and injury type.Finally,we estimated the excess burden of injury death attributable to temperature changes under a sustainable development path[low emission scenario(SSP1-2.6)],regional competition path[high emission scenario(SSP3-7.0)],or fossil fuel development path[very high emission scenario(SSP5-8.5)]. [Results]The study collected 155577 injury deaths in Hunan Province.The results indicated that for each 1 ℃ increment in daily mean temperature,the cumulative excess risk(CER)of injury mortality among Hunan residents increased by 0.71％(95％CI:0.53％,0.90％).No-tably,the CER for intentional injuries(1.06％,95％CI:0.51％,1.61％)was higher than that for unintentional injuries(0.66％,95％CI:0.46％,0.87％).Warmer temperatures were positively associated with CER of mortality due to drowning,falls,transport injuries,assaults,and suicides,while they were negatively associated with mortality due to poisoning.Compared with 2010-2019,for 2090-2099,the excess mortality rate(EMR)due to ambient temperature increase in Hunan Province under the SSP5-8.5 scenario(14.62/100000,95％CI:10.81/100000,18.40/100000)would be higher than that of the SSP3-7.0 scenario(10.28/100000,95％CI:7.58/100000,12.97/100000)and the SSP1-2.6 scenario(3.35/100000,95％CI:2.46/100000,4.23/100000);the EMR would be around 2.5 times among men(20.64/100000,95％CI:14.44/100000,26.8/100000)than that among women(8.33/100000,95％CI:3.98/100000,12.6/100000).Among unintentional injuries,the leading contributors to EMR would be drowning(4.46/100000),falls(3.96/100000),and transport in-juries(2.96/100000).And among intentional injuries,the EMR for suicide(2.08/100000)would be higher than that for assault(0.47/100000). [Conclusion]Climate warming will increase the total burden of injury-related deaths among residents in Hunan Province,especially in the absence of effective mitigation strategies and measures.It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of severe injuries closely related to temperature changes,such as drowning,falls,traffic,and suicides injuries,in order to reduce injury deaths associated with climate change.关键词
日平均气温/伤害/病例交叉设计/暴露反应关系/超额死亡率Key words
daily mean temperature/injury/case-crossing design/exposure-response relationship/excess number of deaths分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
许意清,周纯良,孙倩莱,金东辉,胡建雄,何冠豪,马文军,邓志红..湖南省气温与伤害死亡的关联研究及未来气温相关死亡负担预估[J].环境与职业医学,2025,42(5):528-535,8.基金项目
湖南省疾病预防控制中心"青荷"青年培育基金项目(QHJJ20230008) （QHJJ20230008）
湖南省自然科学基金面上项目(2020JJ4388) （2020JJ4388）
