农业技术经济Issue(6)：68-89,22.
耕地质量保护技术采纳的粮食产出及风险效应分析:组合型采纳更有效吗
An Analysis of Grain Yield and Risk Effects of Adopting Farmland Conservation Technologies:Is Combined Adoption More Effective?
摘要
Abstract
Based on a theoretical analysis of the impact of the adoption of farmland conserva-tion technologies by farmers on grain yield,and yield risks including yield fluctuations and down-side risks,this article uses the multinomial endogenous switching regression model to analyze the effects and differences of different combinations of farmland conservation technologies adoption on grain yield and risks based on survey data from rice growers in Hubei and Hunan provinces.The results indicate that under the counterfactual assumption,adopting straw returning combined with deep tillage and loosening,and(or)organic fertilizer application has a significant positive impact on improving expected grain output,reducing output fluctuations,and mitigating downside risks compared to straw returning alone.The joint adoption of farmland conservation technologies is more conducive to increasing and stabilizing yield than the individual adoption of straw returning to the field.Among them,the joint adoption of three farmland conservation technologies has the most significant effect of increasing and stabilizing yield.In addition,for farmers with different farming scales,organizational support statuses,and technology adoption times,the impact of different technology combinations on grain yield and yield risk is not consistent,and there may e-ven be adverse effects.关键词
耕地质量保护/粮食生产/产出风险/多项内生转换模型(MESR)Key words
Farmland conservation technologies/Grain production/Production risk/Multinomial endogenous switching regression引用本文复制引用
辜香群,杨志海,张荫泽,万浩然..耕地质量保护技术采纳的粮食产出及风险效应分析:组合型采纳更有效吗[J].农业技术经济,2025,(6):68-89,22.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目"高标准农田建后管护的绩效评估与长效机制研究"(编号:24BJY164). （编号:24BJY164）
