中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.55Issue(8)：15-28,14.DOI:10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20240177
气候变化背景下台风风暴潮漫滩多年一遇的数值研究
Numerical Study of Typhoon Storm Surge Inundation Under Climate Change
摘要
Abstract
Storm surge disaster is the primary marine disaster affecting China.Typhoon storm surge disaster has strong and wide characteristics.The intensity of typhoon storm surge disaster in Qingdao,Shandong Province is increasing under climate change.In order to study the influence of sea level rise and typhoon wind speed increase on the trend of multi-year return periods of storm surge inundation,the ADCIRC model with 80m resolution combined with sea level rise and typhoon wind speed increase was used to simulate the highest water level and maximum inundation area based on the 500-year ty-phoon random event set in the blue valley area of Qingdao,Shandong Province.Then the Gumbel curve was used to fit the annual extreme water level and the maximum inundation area,and the multi-year re-turn value was obtained.The multi-year return value obtained by fitting the 62-year historical data was compared.The results show that:(1)During the typhoon storm surge process,53.2%of the typhoons in the study area accounted for more than 1/2 of the maximum inundation area from the beginning of in-undation to the occurrence of the maximum inundation area,and the maximum inundation area tended to appear in the second half of the inundation process;(2)The fluctuation of the highest water level and the maximum inundated area of the typhoon storm surge is affected by the length of the data.The latter has stricter requirements on the length of the data,and the longer the length of the data,the smaller the fluctuation of the results;(3)The response of the highest water level and the maximum inundated area of typhoon storm surge to sea level rise and wind speed increase is different.The highest water level is more affected by sea level rise,and the maximum inundated area is more affected by wind speed in-crease.On the one hand,sea level rise will increase the highest water level of multi-year storm surge,and its inundation range will expand to the depth of land,but the impact on the increase of water in the study area is relatively small,and the inundation area of inundation will decrease in the calculation of multi-year return period.On the other hand,the influence of wind speed increase on the highest water level of multi-year storm surge is weaker than that of sea level rise,but the influence of water increase directly aggravates the storm surge disaster,and the maximum inundation area shows an increasing trend;(4)Under the scenario of 10%wind speed increase combined with 30cm sea level rise,the calcu-lated value of the highest water level in the multi-year return period is the highest,and the calculated value of the maximum flood inundation area in the multi-year return period is only weaker than the sce-nario of 10%wind speed enhancement.关键词
台风风暴潮/漫滩/海平面升高/风速增强Key words
typhoon storm surge/inundation/sea level rise/wind speed increases分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
季丽娜,江文胜..气候变化背景下台风风暴潮漫滩多年一遇的数值研究[J].中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,55(8):15-28,14.基金项目
科技基础资源调查专项(2022FY100303)资助 Supported by the Science and Technology Fundamental Resources Investigation Program(2022FY100303) （2022FY100303）
