气象2025，Vol.51Issue(7)：789-802,14.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2025.032901
近40年华南地区水汽收支变化特征及与降水的相关分析
Variation Characteristics of Water Vapor Budget and Its Correlation with Precipitation in South China During Recent 40 Years
摘要
Abstract
South China is an important water vapor transport channel.Studying the water vapor budget in South China is essential for predicting precipitation processes in South China and its neighboring areas,and comprehending the impact of atmospheric circulation changes on weather and climate in China.Based on ERA5 data,the variation trend of water vapor budget and its correlation with precipitation in South China during the recent 40 years(1983-2022)are analyzed.The results show that water vapor in South China is mainly input through its the southern and western boundaries,and output through the northern and east-ern boundaries,with the net budget being negative.The water vapor budget shows a declining trend,with a significant decrease in the output from the eastern boundary.In the four seasons,the input and output water vapor budget declines most obviously in spring.Water vapor enters into the South China Region mainly from the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal in the southwest direction and western Pacific in the southwest direction.Water vapor in the middle and lower layers(700 hPa)is primarily transported from the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal,while water vapor in the lower layer(925 hPa)mainly originates from western Pacific.In the recent 40 years,water vapor transport from the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal and western Pacific has been weakening,causing the changes in water vapor transport from the direction of northeast to southwest in South China.Water vapor transport is positively correlated to pre-cipitation in most areas of Guangxi and Guangdong,with correlation coefficient＞0.6,of which the strengthening of southwestly water vapor transport is the key reason of precipitation.In addition,there is a trend of wetting in South China,with a 2.32％increase in precipitable water vapor(PWV)during the recent 40 years,which is the result of decrease in total water vapor outflow in the region than that of total inflow.The results of this study can provide a reference for further understanding of water vapor budget changes and abnormal precipitation events in South China.关键词
华南地区/水汽收支/整层水汽输送量/大气可降水量/降水Key words
South China/water vapor budget/integrated water vapor transport/precipitable water vapor(PWV)/precipitation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王乙竹,梁静舒,曹云昌,梁宏,粟华林,陶伟,罗晋..近40年华南地区水汽收支变化特征及与降水的相关分析[J].气象,2025,51(7):789-802,14.基金项目
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J061)、国家自然科学基金项目(42174027)、广西科技计划项目(桂科AB21075005)、北部湾大气水分循环综合观测试验(BEIGAWEX2023to2028)和中南半岛水循环综合观测暨中港大湾区水汽输送观测试验(GCSYJH23-04)共同资助 （CXFZ2024J061）
