摘要
Abstract
Load prediction and modal analysis of flexible load are important contents of building a renewable energy power system.In this paper,the load of building air conditioning and electric vehicle is taken as the research object,and a spatiotemporal distribution prediction model of heterogeneous flexible loads considering different spatiotemporal characteristics is proposed,and the heterogeneous flexible load mode is analyzed.Firstly,based on the operation mode of load aggregators,a hierarchical physical architecture of a high-proportion renewable energy power system is constructed.Secondly,combined with the concept of travel chain,the spatiotemporal states of heterogeneous flexible load is established,the heterogeneous flexible load and its influencing factors are modeled and studied,and the load change curve is calculated by Monte Carlo method.Finally,the transportation network diagram is established based on the actual data of a specific city,and the simulation and calculation of heterogeneous flexible loads under different conditions are realized.The results show that the ambient temperature has a great influence on its load mode,and the heterogeneous flexible loads in winter and summer show obvious complementary characteristics.Heterogeneous flexible loads vary significantly across different charging areas,and electric vehicles show much higher regulation potential than building air conditioners.Users exhibit conservative charging behavior,which can better smooth out the fluctuation of heterogeneous flexible load charging load.关键词
异构柔性负荷/出行链/时空分布特性/负荷模态/蒙特卡洛Key words
heterogeneous flexible loads/travel chains/spatiotemporal distribution characteristics/load mode/monte carlo分类
信息技术与安全科学
