首都经济贸易大学学报2025，Vol.27Issue(4)：83-99,17.DOI:10.13504/j.cnki.issn1008-2700.2025.04.006
海外供应网络地位对中国企业出口稳定性的影响研究
The Impact of Overseas Supply Network Positions on the Export Stability of Chinese Firms
摘要
Abstract
International economic fluctuations have profoundly affected the stable and smooth flow of the sup-ply chain,which has brought severe challenges to firms'export performance.This paper systematically examines the impact of firms'overseas supply network positions on their export stability under economic shocks,based on China's Customs database and global bilateral trade data from 2006 to 2014. The key innovations of this paper are threefold.First,this paper identifies supply-side network characteristics as underexplored determinants of export stability,complementing demand-centric literature.Second,this paper de-velops a novel supply network centrality metric integrating supplier countries'global positions,firm-supplier linkage intensity,and input-output linkages.Third,this paper shifts focus from price-quality effects or technology spillovers to establish intermediate input stability as the key channel linking supply networks to export stability. In terms of research methodology,this paper adopts the network analysis method,combining the China Cus-toms database and the CEPII-BACI database,to construct an indicator of enterprises'overseas supply network.The indicator considers the positions of overseas supplier countries in the global supply network,the strength of the link-age between firms and the supplier countries,and the input-output relationship.Additionally,this paper defines export disruptions and exit behavior at the firm-product level using the 2008 economic shock as an examples.Sub-sequently,an empirical model is used to examine the impact of overseas supply networks on firms'export stability and make endogeneity analyses and robustness tests. This paper finds that firms with higher supply network centrality exhibit significantly lower probabilities of ex-port disruptions or exits during crises.Results withstand endogeneity checks and robustness tests.Mechanism anal-ysis reveals dual reinforcement channels:Primarily,countries occupying central positions in global supply networks demonstrate stronger supply stability,exhibiting enhanced capacity to absorb production shocks during crises.Con-currently,firms importing intermediate goods from supply network hubs mitigate disruption risks and sustain pro-duction continuity and export performance.The stabilizing effect intensifies in cases of inelastic import demand for specialized inputs,concentrated sourcing markets with limited diversification potential,and weak domestic substi-tutability.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that firms exhibit greater reliance on overseas supply networks'export-sta-bilizing effects when operating under conditions of lower supply relationship maturity,weaker linkage strength,and heightened competition intensity in the intermediate goods market. The implications are as follows.First,the overseas supply chains should be strengthened to enhance the stabil-ity of intermediate goods supply.Second,it is necessary to expand the diversity of the supply system to reduce the supply risk of a single source.Third,it is necessary to enhance the substitution ability of the domestic supply chain to reduce the over-dependence on overseas supply.关键词
海外供应网络/出口稳定性/经济冲击/供给稳定Key words
overseas supply network/export stability/economic shocks/supply stability分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
高晓彤,白雪洁,汪子豪..海外供应网络地位对中国企业出口稳定性的影响研究[J].首都经济贸易大学学报,2025,27(4):83-99,17.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年项目"风险防范视角下海外供应商网络对出口韧性的作用机制与策略选择"(72303117) （72303117）
中国博士后科学基金面上项目"供应关系灵活性对企业出口韧性的影响研究:机理与实证"(2023M731812) （2023M731812）
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"双向直接投资赋能国内国际双循环:动力机制与实现路径研究"(22JJD790038) （22JJD790038）
