摘要
Abstract
Over the past 20 years,runoff in the Zhouhe River Basin has significantly declined,closely linked to regional industrial,agricultural,and economic development.Therefore,quantitatively identifying the causes of runoff changes in the basin is of critical importance.Based on measured data from the Zhidan Hydrological Station from 1964 to 2023,this study first applies the process line method,Mann-Kendall trend test,and sliding t-test to analyze trends and detect abrupt changes in precipitation and runoff.Additionally,the double cumulative curve method is used to both verify the results of abrupt change analysis and establish a functional relationship between cumulative precipitation and cumulative runoff.Based on the final determined mutation point,the study period is divided into a reference period and an analysis period.Finally,the runoff restoration method is employed to perform a quantitative attribution analysis of runoff changes.The findings reveal that,although precipitation variation in the Zhouhe River Basin is not statistically significant,a distinct mutation in runoff occurred around the year 2000,with increasingly intense fluctuations thereafter.The primary cause is identified as human activities,contributing as much as 102.68％to the reduction in runoff.关键词
周河流域/Mann-Kendall趋势检验法/滑动t检验法/径流还原法/人类活动Key words
Zhouhe River Basin/Mann-Kendall trend test/sliding t-test/runoff restoration method/human activities分类
建筑与水利
