世界林业研究2025，Vol.38Issue(2)：39-47,9.DOI:10.13348/j.cnki.sjlyyj.2025.0032.y
森林碳汇计量监测的不确定性研究
Uncertainties in Accounting and Monitoring Forest Carbon Sink:A Review
摘要
Abstract
In the context of the"dual carbon"goals,enhancing the accuracy and verifiability of forest carbon sink accounting and monitoring has become an urgent priority.However,limited technology and data gaps have caused major uncertainties in forest carbon sink monitoring results via the mainstream approaches,weakening both carbon accounting reliability and forest management effectiveness.After reviewing the approaches and technologies currently used,uncertainty sources and quantification techniques as well as existing improvement strategies,this study focuses on accounting precision and operability,and proposes a carbon-neutral-oriented framework for improving the accuracy of forest carbon sink accounting and monitoring,and the components include:1)A multi-scale,multi-source data acquisition system that integrates top-down and bottom-up observations;2)A full-process mechanism for identifying,disintegrating and quantifying uncertainties,which locates key error sources through spatiotemporal co-registration,data assimilation,and sensitivity analysis;3)Model optimization and multi-model complementarity centred on parameter localization,deep-learning integration,and cross-validation to reinforce result robustness;and 4)A decision-making-oriented standard system and iterative improvement mechanism that establishes unified parameter libraries,model libraries,and quality-control specifications to support sustainable updates and result comparability.关键词
森林碳汇/计量监测/不确定性Key words
forest carbon sink/accounting and monitoring/uncertainty分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
韩东阳,陈绍志,赵荣..森林碳汇计量监测的不确定性研究[J].世界林业研究,2025,38(2):39-47,9.基金项目
国家重点研发计划"落叶松人工林智慧化多功能经营决策技术"(2023YFD2200804) （2023YFD2200804）
浙江省省院合作林业科技项目"浙江省森林生态系统固碳增汇技术及碳汇价值实现路径研究"(2023SY02) （2023SY02）
中央级公益性院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目"生态产品价值实现关键技术与路径研究"(CAFYBB2022MC001). （CAFYBB2022MC001）
