水利水电科技进展2025，Vol.45Issue(4)：67-75,9.DOI:10.3880/j.issn.1006-7647.2025.04.010
考虑预报不确定性的梯级水库群联合优化调度
Joint optimal operation of cascade reservoirs considering forecast uncertainty
摘要
Abstract
In order to achieve a win-win situation for both power generation and ecological benefits of cascade reservoirs,a dynamic simulation chain of"forecasting-scheduling-risk analysis"was constructed.The forecast error evolution process was revealed by the martingale model of forecast evolution(MMFE).The rolling inflow forecast scenarios were generated by the Monte Carlo simulation(MCS)based on Latin hypercube sampling(LHS).Using cascade reservoirs in the Qingjiang River Basin as an example,on the basis of regional hydrological information with uncertainty,the minimum,suitable,and ideal ecological flow rates of the downstream control sections of the Shuibuya and Geheyan reservoirs were calculated,and a synergistic regulation model of power generation and ecological benefit of cascade reservoirs was constructed and solved using the multi-objective shuffling frog leaping algorithm(MOSFLA).The potential risk of water regulation under the influence of runoff forecast uncertainty was analyzed.The results demonstrate that the proposed model can dynamically identify the uncertain information propagated from the inflow forecast to reservoir scheduling,helping to reduce potential water regulation risk and enhance the robustness of water resources regulation for cascade reservoirs.关键词
梯级水库/预报不确定性/多目标优化调度/MOSFLA/风险分析/生态流量/清江流域Key words
cascade reservoirs/forecast uncertainty/multi-objective optimal scheduling/MOSFLA/risk analysis/ecological flow/the Qingjiang River Basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
赵紫薇,杨哲,张全旺,宋松柏..考虑预报不确定性的梯级水库群联合优化调度[J].水利水电科技进展,2025,45(4):67-75,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52109034) （52109034）
中国博士后科学基金项目(2023M732891) （2023M732891）
唐仲英基金会项目(K4050723175) （K4050723175）
陕西省博士后科学基金项目(2023BSHYDZZ64) （2023BSHYDZZ64）
