水利学报2025，Vol.56Issue(6)：759-770,12.DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20240628
基于逆优化的邻接对手水电站参数反推模型及求解方法
An inverse optimization-based parameter estimation model and solution method for neighboring rival's hydropower station
摘要
Abstract
Cascade hydropower stations have a highly coupled hydro connection,where the discharge from upstream stations directly affects the feasibility of power generation and bidding plans for downstream stations,especially when the upstream and downstream stations belong to different entities.Upstream stations make generation decisions based on their own interests,which brings high uncertainty to downstream stations.To address this issue,this paper studies a local hydropower cascade consisting of three stations.Based on the observable historical behavior data of the upstream stations,an inverse optimization model is proposed to estimate the operational parameters and historical data sequences,with the feasible domain of the undecided parameters determined by engineering experience.This model is a bilevel optimization model,where the upper-level model determines the main operational parameters of the objective station,and the lower-level model uses the parameters provided by the upper-level model to simulate the self-interested scheduling process of the objective station.The allocation ratio of natural runoff within the basin is also integrated into the parameters to be inferred.To solve the model with highly non-convex and multi-variable math-ematical characteristics,a variable-dimensional search method based on particle swarm optimization is proposed.Numerical examples demonstrate that the proposed inverse estimating model and variable-dimensional search method can accurately estimate the operational parameters and historical series data of upstream neighboring stations,with an estimation error within 2％.The proposed solving method consistently maintains strong search capabilities during the search process,showing significant improvement over the original algorithm.Simulation experiments and statisti-cal analysis further validate the reliability of the proposed model and solution algorithm.关键词
电力市场/梯级水电/逆优化/双层优化/微粒子群算法Key words
electricity market/cascade hydropower/inverse model/bilevel optimization/micro particle swarm opti-mization分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
王祥祯,李亚鹏,程春田,李刚,崔长跃..基于逆优化的邻接对手水电站参数反推模型及求解方法[J].水利学报,2025,56(6):759-770,12.基金项目
辽宁省自然科学基金博士启动项目(2023-BSBA-066) （2023-BSBA-066）
国家自然科学基金重点项目(52039002) （52039002）
中央高校基本科研业务费项目(DUT24BS046) （DUT24BS046）
