水生态学杂志2025，Vol.46Issue(4)：96-105,10.DOI:10.15928/j.1674-3075.202305180135
基于LUCC的漓江流域碳储量时空变化及模拟预测
Prediction of Carbon Storage in the Lijiang River Basin Based on Land Use/Land Cover(LUCC)
摘要
Abstract
Quantitative prediction of carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems by model simulation is im-portant for climate regulation and ecosystem management.In this study,the Lijiang River basin was se-lected for case study,and we analyzed the dynamic changes in carbon storage resulting from land use vari-ation in Lijiang River basin(2000-2020),based on land use data for 2000,2005,2010,2015 and 2020.Landscape simulation and prediction of the spatial distribution of carbon storage in the Lijiang River ba-sin in 2025 and 2030 was accomplished by combining partial least squares regression with the Future Land Use Simulation(PLSR-FLUS)model and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST)model using two simulation scenarios(natural development and ecological priority).Re-sults show that:(1)The carbon storage in Lijiang River basin in 2000,2005,2010,2015 and 2020 were,respectively,133.8×106,133.58×106,133.43×106,132.32×106 and 129.11×106 t.Over the period of 2000 to 2020,the carbon storage in the Lijiang River basin declined consistently and significantly,with an over-all decrease of 4.62×106 t over the 20 year period,attributed primarily to conversion of forest and cultivat-ed lands to construction land.(2)From 2000 to 2020,the spatial distribution of carbon storage in the Liji-ang River basin was consistently higher in the northeast and lower in the southwest.(3)During the study period,carbon storage in both karst and non-karst areas declined.However,from 2000 to 2020,carbon storage in karst areas decreased by 5.05%and by 2.65%in non-karst areas,indicating that karst ecosys-tems are more susceptible to external influences that result in carbon loss.Specifically,carbon storage dif-fered between karst and non-karst landforms,with recorded values of 44.54×106 t and 84.76×106 t in 2020.(4)Carbon storage in the Lijiang River basin for 2030 was estimated to be 123.08×106 t with the natural development scenario and 127.66×106 t with the ecological priority scenario.Under the ecological priority scenario,the decrease in carbon storage was significantly less than under the natural development scenario.Our research demonstrates that rational planning and restrictions on land development,coupled with controlling the conversion of high-carbon-density land types to low-carbon-density land types,can effectively enhance watershed carbon sequestration capacity.The results provide a scientific reference for enhancing regional ecosystem carbon storage by optimizing land use and promoting the sustainable devel-opment of Guilin City as a national innovative demonstration zone for achieving the goal of carbon neu-trality.关键词
土地利用/土地覆被/碳储量/InVEST模型/PLSR-FLUS模型/多情景模拟/漓江流域Key words
land use/land cover/carbon storage/InVEST model/PLSR-FLUS model/multi-scenario simulation/Lijiang River basin分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
周馨冉,何文,王金叶,魏青青,姚月锋..基于LUCC的漓江流域碳储量时空变化及模拟预测[J].水生态学杂志,2025,46(4):96-105,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(31960252,32060369) （31960252,32060369）
广西重点研发计划项目(AB22035060). （AB22035060）
