水土保持研究2025，Vol.32Issue(5)：69-79,11.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.05.003
基于Budyko和abcd模型的黑河上游径流变化归因分析
Attribution analysis of runoff variations in upper reaches of Heihe River based on Budyko and abcd models
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]To explore the runoff evolution patterns and driving factors in the Heihe River Basin under changing environments and quantify the contribution rate of each influencing factor to the runoff variations,aiming to provide scientific support for the development and utilization of water resources in the upper reaches of the Heihe River.[Methods]The Mann-Kendall mutation test,Budyko model,and abcd hydrological model were used to analyze the evolution patterns and driving factors of runoff in the upper reaches of the Heihe River from 1980 to 2023.[Results](1)The peak period of runoff in the upper reaches of the Heihe River was delayed,with a decreasing intra-annual variability of monthly runoff,leading to a more even intra-annual distribution of runoff.Runoff experienced fluctuating changes on an annual scale,transitioning from a normal-dry period to a normal period and then to a wet-normal period,but overall showed an increasing trend.(2)Runoff at Qilian,Zhamashike,and Yingluoxia stations experienced mutations in 2003,2005,and 2005,respectively.After the mutations,runoff increased by 11.33%,35.30%,and 19.54%compared to before.The contributions of precipitation and potential evaporation to runoff diminished,while the contribution of temperature increased.(3)Runoff was most sensitive to precipitation variations,followed by underlying surface and potential evaporation.The Budyko and abcd hydrological models revealed that climate change contributed 58.47%and 86.85%,respectively,to the runoff variations,with precipitation being the main climatic factor of runoff increase.The reduction of human activities in forest areas also promoted runoff increase.[Conclusion]Runoff in the upper reaches of the Heihe River shows a significant increasing trend,with climate change contributing more than 50%to the runoff variation.Climate change is the main driving factor of runoff variation in the upper reaches of the Heihe River.关键词
径流变化/气候变化/Budyko模型/abcd水文模型/黑河上游Key words
runoff variation/climate change/Budyko model/abcd hydrological model/upper reaches of Heihe River分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张苏娜,牛最荣,贾玲..基于Budyko和abcd模型的黑河上游径流变化归因分析[J].水土保持研究,2025,32(5):69-79,11.基金项目
甘肃省科技重大专项(23ZDFA009) （23ZDFA009）
2017年甘肃省水利科学试验研究及技术推广项目(甘水科外发[2017]76号-22) （甘水科外发[2017]76号-22）
甘肃省水利科学试验研究及技术推广计划项目(22GSLK061) （22GSLK061）
