中国生态农业学报（中英文）2025，Vol.33Issue(7)：1348-1359,12.DOI:10.12357/cjea.20240713
气候变暖背景下极端温度对棉花产量的影响
Impacts of extreme temperatures on cotton yields in the context of climate warming:A case study of Xinjiang
摘要
Abstract
Extreme temperature events are becoming increasingly frequent due to global warming.This poses a serious threat to the crop production.Cotton is an important cash crop in China,and Xinjiang accounts for 24％of the global cotton production.Studying the effects of extreme temperatures on cotton yields is important for developing the Chinese cotton industry.In this study,we used the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope method to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of yield variation and assessed the response of cotton yield to temperature extremes using the copula function based on historical climate data and cotton yield data in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2019.The results showed that the upward trend in cotton yield from 1990 to 2019 was highly significant(P＜0.01)in 86％of Xinjiang.The probability of an increase in cotton production because of extreme temperature effects was greater than 20％in 41.7％of the southern border but only 26.1％of the northern border.The probability of cotton yield reduction because of extreme temperatures was less than 30％in 92.6％of the areas across Xinjiang,and areas with a probability of yield reduction greater than 30％were concentrated north of the Tianshan Mountains.The cotton climatic yield was significantly affected by the minimum daily temperature and the maximum daily temperature during the cotton growth period among the six extreme climate indicators.The probability of a yield reduction of more than 133 kg·hm-2 increased by 16％,and the probability of a yield increase of more than 137 kg·hm-2 decreased by 10％as the minimum daily temperature during the cotton growth period increased,but increased by 17％and decreased by 12％as the maximum daily temperature during the cotton growth period increased.This study demonstrates that cotton production in Xinjiang exhibited an upward trend from 1990 to 2019.The likelihood of a negative impact on cotton yield increases with increases in the minimum daily minimum temperature during the cotton growth period and maximum daily maximum temperat-ure during the cotton growth period.It is beneficial to reduce the risks associated with cotton production,establish production plans,and encourage the growth of the cotton industry's ability to adapt to climate change to clarify how cotton yield occurrence probability responds to extreme climate indicators.关键词
棉花/极端温度/产量/风险分析/县域Key words
cotton/extreme temperatures/yield/risk analysis/county分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
王雨菡,李军宏,孙桂兰,翟梦华,赵文琪,张要朋,王坤锋,王立志,李存东,王剑,王占彪,邓淼鑫,武宇欣,郭思梦,汪数辰,李鹏程,张正贵,潘占磊,李鑫..气候变暖背景下极端温度对棉花产量的影响[J].中国生态农业学报（中英文）,2025,33(7):1348-1359,12.基金项目
"天山人才"培养计划(2023TSYCCX0020)、庭州科技创新团队(2023CT09)、丝绸之路经济带创新驱动发展试验区、乌昌石国家自主创新示范区科技发展计划(2023LQJ03)资助 This study was supported by the"Tianshan Talent"Training Program(2023TSYCCX0020),Tingzhou Science and Technology Innovation Team(2023CT09),Science and Technology Development Program of the Pilot Zone for Innovation-Driven Development along the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Wu-Chang-Shi National Innovation Demonstration Zone(2023LQJ03). （2023TSYCCX0020）
