生态学报2025，Vol.45Issue(13)：6576-6585,10.DOI:10.20103/j.stxb.202410292636
东北水稻种植分布随气候变化迁移的增产效果评估
Evaluating the yield-increasing effect of the migration of rice cultivation distribution in the northeast in adapting to climate change
摘要
Abstract
Understanding agricultural adaptive mechanisms to climate change and evaluating adaptation efficacy are critical for improving agricultural climate resilience.Crop migration is an important agricultural adaptation strategy,yet existing research has not adequately assessed its adaptive effectiveness.Using Northeast China as a case study,we apply the Random Forest algorithm to analyze drivers behind the migration of rice cultivation distribution in this region from 1985 to 2015,and quantify its adaptation benefits.The results show that:Firstly,climate change from 1985 to 2015 prompted a northeastward shift of～106 km in rice cultivation's centroid within Northeast China.Among them,the increase in accumulated temperature is the most critical climatic factor influencing the changes in rice cultivation distribution in the Northeast region.It has contributed to the migration of the center of gravity of rice cultivation towards the northeast by approximately 83 kilometers and promoted an expansion of rice cultivation area in the region by 680,000 hectares,accounting for 37％of the total expansion during this period.However,changes in precipitation have no significant effect on the shift of the rice cultivation distribution.Secondly,the northward shift of rice cultivation areas in the Northeast has effectively alleviated high temperature stress during the rice growing period,positively influencing rice yield enhancement across the region.Further quantitative analysis reveals that if the migration of rice cultivation distribution is ignored,climate change alone would increase rice production by 2.73 million tons.However,when considering both the increase in yield and changes in cultivation distribution comprehensively,the effect of climate change on enhancing the total rice production in the Northeast becomes more prominent,with an increase of approximately 8.43 million tons,accounting for 31％of the total actual increase in production.This finding highlights the crucial role of the migration of crop cultivation distribution in adapting to the risks posed by climate change on food production.To fully leverage the positive effects of the migration of rice cultivation distribution,emphasis should be placed on selecting and breeding rice varieties with stronger cold tolerance,improving the level of agricultural mechanization,developing integrated agricultural policy frameworks and irrigation infrastructure,and simultaneously enhancing the synergistic effect between yield and the environment.The research findings of this study provide a solid scientific basis for deepening the understanding of mechanisms for agriculture to adapt to climate change,optimizing the layout of rice production in China,and enhancing agricultural adaptability to climate change.关键词
气候变化/适应/作物迁移/水稻/种植分布Key words
climate change/adaptation/crop migration/rice/cropping distribution引用本文复制引用
苏询,梁钰茹,华而实,陈敏鹏..东北水稻种植分布随气候变化迁移的增产效果评估[J].生态学报,2025,45(13):6576-6585,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2023YFF0805900-04) （2023YFF0805900-04）
