生物安全学报（中英文）2025，Vol.34Issue(3)：249-257,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-1787.20240079
基于优化MaxEnt模型的火炬树在我国潜在适生区预测
Prediction of potential suitable habitats of Rhus typhina in China based on an optimized MaxEnt model
摘要
Abstract
[Aim]This study aims to predict the potential suitable habitats of the invasive plant Rhus typhina in China in the current and future climate scenarios.The findings will aid in early warning and monitoring of R.typhina invasion and give insights into the u-tilization of this plant.[Method]An MaxEnt model optimized by the Kuenm package in R and ArcGIS were used for modeling of 103 distribution points of R.typhina and 8 environmental factors,on the basis of which the potential suitable habitats were predicted and graded in various climate scenarios.[Result](1)The best parameter combination of the optimized model was feature combina-tion=LT and regularization multiplier=1.4,under which the model yielded an AUC of 0.929,demonstrating high prediction accura-cy.(2)The main environmental factors influencing the distribution of R.typhina were the average temperature of the coldest quarter(bio11)and isothermality(bio3),which were identified through the jackknife method,permutation importance,and contribution rate.(3)In the current climate scenario,the suitable habitats of R.typhina were predicted to be mainly in central and northeastern China,as well as parts of Xinjiang,with a total area of 370.72×104 km2,accounting for 38.62％of China's land area.(4)In the future climate scenario,the suitable habitats showed a growing total area,particularly expanding toward the northwest and northeast of China,with the core distribution areas shifting toward northeastern China.[Conclusion]R.typhina is currently concentrated in the northern areas of the Qinling Mountains.However,with global warming,its suitable habitat is expected to expand,particularly toward the northwest and northeast of China.The optimized MaxEnt model accurately predicts the potential suitable habitats of R.typhina,offering valuable guidance for managing the invasion risks and promoting the sustainable utilization of this plant.关键词
火炬树/MaxEnt模型/适生区/气候变化Key words
Rhus typhina/MaxEnt/suitable habitat/climate change引用本文复制引用
吕玉玲,潘文豪,饶鑫媛,刘虎岐..基于优化MaxEnt模型的火炬树在我国潜在适生区预测[J].生物安全学报（中英文）,2025,34(3):249-257,9.基金项目
榆阳区外来入侵植物普查项目(K4050123055) （K4050123055）
