生物安全学报（中英文）2025，Vol.34Issue(3)：258-263,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-1787.20240127
气候变化下瑞香狼毒在内蒙古的潜在适生区分析
Prediction of potential suitable habitats of Stellera chamaejasme L.in Inner Mongolia under climate change
摘要
Abstract
[Aim]This study investigates the future changes in suitable habitats of Stellera chamaejasme L.in Inner Mongolia,with the goal of providing guidance for the development of prevention and control strategies for S.chamaejasme,as well as management approa-ches for degraded grasslands in this region.[Method]The maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model was employed to predict suitable habitats of S.chamaejasme in Inner Mongolia under the current climate scenario as well as the future climate scenarios for the 2050s(SSP126,sustainability)and 2070s(SSP585,fossil-fueled development).[Result]The AUC value of the training set in the MaxEnt model was 0.950,which indicated that the model had high reliability.The principal environmental variables that influenced the distri-bution of S.chamaejasme in Inner Mongolia included precipitation of warmest quarter(bio18),elevation(elev),precipitation of coldest quarter(bio 19),mean temperature of wettest quarter(bio8),mean temperature of coldest quarter(bio1 1),and precipitation seasonality(bio 15).The suitable habitats of S.chamaejasme were mainly concentrated in the eastern and southwestern regions of Inner Mongolia under the current scenario,with a total suitable area of 37.168×104 km2.The suitable habitats of S.chamaejasme were expec-ted to migrate to the western region of Inner Mongolia under the future scenarios.The total suitable area was expected to decrease to 23.621 ×104 km2 in the 2050s and to 22.137×104 km2 in the 2070s under the SSP126 scenario.The total suitable area was expected to decrease to 11.556×104 km2 in the 2050s and to 14.154×104 km2 in the 2070s under the SSP585 scenario.[Conclusion]Under climate change,the potential suitable area of S.chamaejasme is expected to migrate to the western region of Inner Mongolia.It is suggested that monitoring of the harm caused by this species should be enhanced to prevent its threats to ecological security in grasslands.关键词
瑞香狼毒/最大熵模型/潜在适生区/毒害草/内蒙古Key words
Stellera chamaejasme/maximum entropy model/potential suitable habitat/poisonous weed/Inner Mongolia引用本文复制引用
晁开瑞,董金阳,周敏,姜海燕,赵佳,王斌..气候变化下瑞香狼毒在内蒙古的潜在适生区分析[J].生物安全学报（中英文）,2025,34(3):258-263,6.基金项目
内蒙古农业大学林学院青年基金 （）
东北林业大学博士研究生自主创新基金(2572018AB32) （2572018AB32）
