铁道运输与经济2025，Vol.47Issue(7)：12-22,11.DOI:10.16668/j.cnki.issn.1003-1421.2025.07.02
西部陆海新通道铁路冷链运量预测
Forecast of Volume of Cold Chain Transportation in New Western Land-Sea Corridor
摘要
Abstract
The new western land-sea corridor is a comprehensive passage for the western region of China to open up to the outside world and collaborate with other countries and regions.It holds a strategic position in the coordinated regional development.The construction and development of the cold chain logistics system are important topics for the"14th Five-Year Plan".Based on the current development status and overall planning of the western land-sea new corridor network,the main categories and the existing transportation volume of cold chain freight were analyzed.After the accuracy of the grey forecast model and the stepwise regression model for railway transportation data were compared,the trend extrapolation method was chosen to forecast the total volume of railway cold chain transportation in China.The economic development of various regions and the number of cold chain storage equipment and refrigerated railway cars were investigated to estimate the proportion of cold chain consumption in each province(autonomous region and municipality)under competitive conditions and forecast the total volume of railway cold chain transportation and the origin-destination(OD)freight flow in the main provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)covered by the new western land-sea corridor.These forecast results can provide a reference for promoting the development of the cold chain transportation industry in the western region and enhancing the attractiveness of cold chain logistics of the new western land-sea corridor.关键词
西部陆海新通道/冷链物流/运量预测/冷链占比/货流ODKey words
New Western Land-Sea Corridor/Cold Chain Logistics/Transportation Volume Forecast/Cold Chain Proportion/OD Freight Flow分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
胡孝红,游永维,余曲波,陈钉均..西部陆海新通道铁路冷链运量预测[J].铁道运输与经济,2025,47(7):12-22,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52072314,52172321,52102391) （52072314,52172321,52102391）
交通运输部交通运输行业重点科技项目(2022-ZD7-131) （2022-ZD7-131）
中国神华能源股份有限公司科技项目(CJNY-20-02) （CJNY-20-02）
广州市重点研发计划项目(202206030007) （202206030007）
中国国家铁路集团有限公司科技研究开发计划课题(P2022X013,K2023X030) （P2022X013,K2023X030）
