西安交通大学学报（社会科学版）2025，Vol.45Issue(4)：39-54,16.DOI:10.15896/j.xjtuskxb.202504004
绿色转型政策组合对碳减排和经济发展的影响
Impact of Green Transition Policy Combination on Carbon Mitigation and Economic Development
摘要
Abstract
In the context of China's high-quality economy emphasizing green development,the implementation of green transition policies should take stable economic development into consideration.Since the contemporary macro policy environment has grown increasingly complex with more policy instruments,exploring the conflict and synergy effects of different green transition policies is of great practical significance for China's stable realization of sustainable development.However,the interaction effects among multiple green transition policies remain underexplored in the literature,particularly regarding their synergistic impacts on both emission reduction and economic performance,and few studies examine the effect of policy combinations comprising more than two policies. Within the framework of policy instrument classification,this paper uses the panel data of 284 cities in China from 2004 to 2020 to investigate the effects of the policy combinations between three transition policies,which are the new energy demonstration city policy,fiscal policy of energy conservation and emission reduction,and innovative city pilot policy,on carbon reduction,economic growth,and employment.The results indicate that all three policies above-whether implemented individually or in combination-can effectively promote carbon mitigation.However,only the innovative city pilot policy avoids"adverse side effects".The implementation of new energy demonstration city policy and fiscal policy of energy conservation and emission reduction have hampered employment and economic growth,respectively.Mechanism analysis reveals that"energy conservation","structural adjustment",and"technological advancement"are the main mechanisms of the policy combinations'effect.Further analysis demonstrates significant synergistic effects within policy combinations.Implementing the new energy demonstration city policy followed by the energy conservation fiscal policy yields better carbon mitigation outcomes.Implementing the innovative city pilot policy first can help mitigate the negative impacts of the other two policies on economic and employment.Moreover,the adverse effects on economic growth and employment from policy combinations are mainly concentrated in resource-intensive cities. The contribution of this paper is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:first,from the overall perspective of taking into account both carbon reduction and economic development,this paper examines the effect of green transition policy combinations under the existing policy classification framework,expands the analysis on multiple pilot policies'effects from two policy combinations to the combination of three policies in pairs,and further explores the mechanism of the policy combination effect from a comprehensive perspective of energy conservation,structural adjustment,and technological advancement.Second,this study further explores the synergistic effect of the three transition policies by comparing the outcome between the implementation of the three policies separately and the policy combination,and it also highlights the significance of the sequencing of policy implementation on carbon mitigation and economic development.These findings offer valuable insights into understanding the internal mechanism of the synergistic effect between different transition policies.Third,this paper provides empirical evidence of the resource curse effect in green transition of resource-intensive regions,and reveals that policy combinations with better carbon emission reduction effects may seriously hinder the economic development of resource-intensive regions.These findings provide critical policy implications for governments in resource-intensive regions to achieve both green transition and economic development through implementing specific policy combinations. This study reveals the inherent logical interactions between different types of green transition policies by comprehensively comparing the effects of different policy combinations on carbon reduction,economic growth and employment,offering new insights and empirical evidence for enhancing the top-level design of China's current green transition policy system.The research findings assist the government in filling the gaps in local green transition policies according to the actual situation of the region,implementing more targeted green transition policies to achieve the dual goals of balancing economic development and carbon reduction through policy synergy,thus promoting green and sustainable development.关键词
碳减排/经济增长/就业/"双碳"目标/绿色转型/政策组合/技术进步Key words
carbon emission reduction/economic growth/employment/dual carbon goals/green transition/policy combination/technological advancement分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
高瑀,赵晓丽..绿色转型政策组合对碳减排和经济发展的影响[J].西安交通大学学报（社会科学版）,2025,45(4):39-54,16.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目(22&ZD103) （22&ZD103）
国家社会科学基金重点项目(21AZD111) （21AZD111）
国家自然科学基金重点项目(71934006). （71934006）
