西北水电Issue(3)：10-16,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-2610.2025.03.002
黄河玛尔挡水电站水库诱发地震的预测
Prediction of Reservoir-Induced Seismicity at the Maerdang Hydropower Station on the Yellow River
摘要
Abstract
To prevent significant impacts of reservoir-induced seismicity on the operation of the hydropower station and the safety of surrounding residents,this study predicts the possibility of induced earthquakes by integrating data on the regional engineering geolog-ical overview,near-field geological structures,and distribution of major faults of the Maerdang Hydropower Station on the Yellow Riv-er.The influence of the seismic geological background of the reservoir area on induced seismicity is analyzed,and the probability meth-od is used to predict the possibility of induced earthquakes and estimate the maximum magnitude of reservoir-induced seismicity,with a comprehensive analysis of the likelihood of reservoir-induced seismicity at this station.The results show that after reservoir impound-ment,the increase in rock load,changes in pore pressure,reduction in rock strength,and the possibility of induced micro-seismicity after small earthquakes are low.The geological tectonic background of the reservoir area shows that the Maqin-Zeku fault in the site ar-ea is a late Pleistocene active fault,with weak activity in the site section,potentially inducing moderate-to-small earthquakes;the li-thological and karst characteristics of the reservoir area will not induce earthquakes.Estimations by the probability prediction method show that both single-factor reservoir depth(0.263)and multi-factor reservoir depth(0.351)exceed the critical probability of 0.2,indicating conditions for induced seismicity.For reservoir-induced seismicity,the maximum magnitude predicted by the comprehensive influence coefficient is 5.1,and that predicted by the fault rupture length is 4.2.关键词
玛尔挡/地质构造/断裂/水库诱发地震Key words
Maerdang/geological structure/fault/reservoir-induced seismicity分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王志通,李瑞卿,付建伟,刘志斌,吕悦军..黄河玛尔挡水电站水库诱发地震的预测[J].西北水电,2025,(3):10-16,7.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1500402) （2017YFC1500402）
