水资源与水工程学报2025，Vol.36Issue(3)：35-44,10.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2025.03.05
Budyko框架下基于多种潜在蒸散发公式的径流演变归因
Attribution analysis of runoff evolution using different potential evapotranspiration formulas based on Budyko equations:A case study of Zifang Station,Boyang River Basin
摘要
Abstract
Budyko equations are widely used in the study of the response of hydrological processes to cli-mate change and human activities.But few studies systematically revealed the impact of different combi-nations of potential evapotranspiration formulas and Budyko structures on runoff attribution analysis.Based on the annual runoff series of 1961-2018 in Zifang Station,Boyang River,we selected 18 differ-ent potential evapotranspiration formulas(including five temperature-based,eight radiation-based,and five temperature-radiation composite types)and three different Budyko equations to analyze the attribution of runoff evolution.The results indicated that annual runoff in Zifang Station showed a significant upward trend,and a significant upward abrupt change occurred in 1987.Among the selected formulas,all the temperature-based formulas(BC,HM,RM,LN,and HD),radiation-based formulas(TC,JH,MB,HG,FAO-24,AT,MK,and OD),as well as two temperature-radiation composite formulas(TO and PT)are not applicable to the calculation of potential evapotranspiration;while KP and PM of the compos-ite formulas are the most suitable ones.Meanwhile,the Fu equation is most consistent with the hydrologi-cal modeling approach that can reflect the variations in land use area and transition matrix across the ba-sin,thus representing the optimal method for attribution of annual runoff at Zifang Station.Under the combination of PM-Fu and KP-Fu,the average contribution rates of precipitation,potential evapo-transpiration,and underlying surface changes to annual runoff changes were 60.65%,28.07%,and 11.29%,respectively.Climate change dominated the evolution of annual runoff at Zifang Station during 1987-2018.These results can provide a technical support for the comprehensive management of regional water resources and other related works.关键词
Budyko方程/径流演变归因/潜在蒸散发/土地利用转移矩阵/梓坊站Key words
Budyko equation/runoff evolution attribution/potential evapotranspiration/land use transi-tion matrix/Zifang Station分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
吴绍飞,姜烈..Budyko框架下基于多种潜在蒸散发公式的径流演变归因[J].水资源与水工程学报,2025,36(3):35-44,10.基金项目
江西省自然科学基金项目(20232BAB214089) （20232BAB214089）
流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室开放基金项目(IWHR-SKL-KF202308) （IWHR-SKL-KF202308）
南昌工程学院国家级大学生创新创业计划项目(202511319018、202511319001) （202511319018、202511319001）
