水资源与水工程学报2025，Vol.36Issue(3)：80-88,98,10.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2025.03.10
未来土地利用与气候驱动下的北洛河流域降水与径流变化研究
Future changes in precipitation and runoff in the Beiluo River Basin driven by land use and climate change
摘要
Abstract
In the context of aggravating human activities and global warming,extreme weather events and water-related disasters have intensified.Accurately predicting and quantifying future hydrological cycles is crucial for addressing climate change.This study aims to evaluate the comprehensive impacts of future climate change and land use change on the runoff in the Beiluo River Basin.Based on 16 global climate models from CMIP6,the SWAT model and future land use projections were integrated to assess spatio-temporal land use changes in the Beiluo River Basin and the spatial variations of precipitation and runoff from 2025 to 2100.Results indicate that by the end of this century,significant portions of farmland in the upper reaches of the Beiluo River Basin will convert to grassland under the scenario of SSP2-4.5.Addi-tionally,some farmland in the lower reaches will gradually shift to built-up areas under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,thereby increasing the proportion of built-up land.The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble(MME)outperforms other models in simulating precipitation and temperature,while KACE-1-0-G model under-performs.Under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,the variation rates of precipitation and runoff in the basin will increase significantly,featuring higher annual rates in the upper reaches.With the increase in the built-up land in the lower reaches,the runoff variation rate will rise significantly.关键词
CMIP6/土地利用/径流变化率/降水变化率/北洛河流域Key words
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6th(CMIP6)/land use/runoff variation rate/pre-cipitation variation rate/the Beiluo River Basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
刘红英,古明兴,王健,张鑫..未来土地利用与气候驱动下的北洛河流域降水与径流变化研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2025,36(3):80-88,98,10.基金项目
杨凌职业技术学院自然科学研究基金项目(A2019002) （A2019002）
国家自然科学基金项目(52379026) （52379026）
