现代妇产科进展2025，Vol.34Issue(8)：577-581,587,6.DOI:10.13283/j.cnki.xdfckjz.2025.08.036
子宫肉瘤患者预后预测列线图模型的建立与验证
Development and validation of a nomogram model for predicting prognosis in patients with uterine sarcoma
周子钧 1许鑫玥 1杨盛英 1李俊强 1欧杨 1李涛1
作者信息
- 1. 成都市第三人民医院妇产科,成都 610031
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To determine the key factors affecting overall survival(OS)and cancer-specific survival(CSS)in uterine sarcoma(US)patients and to develop a validated prognostic nomogram model.Methods:We collected US patient data from the SEER database between 2010 and 2015 and randomly assigned them to a modeling group(70%)and a valida-tion group(30%).Prognostic factors were ascertained through both univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses within the model development cohort.Subsequently,a stepwise back-ward regression method,based on the principle of minimizing the Akaike Information Criterion(AIC),was employed to select the optimal variables for the construction of a visualized predic-tive model.A nomogram was developed for graphical prediction,and its predictive accuracy was assessed using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves and the area un-der the curve(AUC),with the validation group confirming these results.Decision curve analysis(DCA)and calibration curves were utilized to evaluate the clinical utility and predictive accu-racy of the model.Results:The Cox regression identified age,race,histological differentiation,tumor size,T stage,AJCC stage,and surgery as independent prognostic factors.We developed 1-,3-,and 5-year nomogram models for OS and CSS,which demonstrated good discrimination and calibration.The calibration curve demonstrated that the model exhibited satisfactory predic-tive performance.DCA indicated that our nomogram model was more effective than the AJCC staging system in clinical predictability.Conclusion:The internally validated nomogram model showed strong predictive power and clinical value for assessing survival and prognosis in US pa-tients.关键词
子宫肉瘤/SEER数据库/列线图/总生存期/癌症特异性生存期Key words
Uterine sarcoma/SEER database/Nomogram/Overall survival/Cancer-specific survival分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
周子钧,许鑫玥,杨盛英,李俊强,欧杨,李涛..子宫肉瘤患者预后预测列线图模型的建立与验证[J].现代妇产科进展,2025,34(8):577-581,587,6.
