现代情报2025，Vol.45Issue(8)：70-84,15.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1008-0821.2025.08.006
基于Gartner曲线的颠覆性技术生命周期模型构建研究
The Construction of Disruptive Technology Life Cycle Model Based on the Gartner Hype Cycle
摘要
Abstract
[Purpose/Significance]Disruptive technologies follow unique developmental trajectories,and identifying their lifecycle stages is of significant for technology investment,strategic planning,and policy formulation.To more accu-rately characterize the lifecycle of disruptive technologies,this study proposes a machine learning-based lifecycle identifica-tion method based on the Gartner Hype Cycle.[Method/Process]Specifically,the method constructed a comprehensive measurement system based on three dimensions:academic papers,patents,and user expectations,encompassing a total of 14 key indicators.These indicators analyzed and trained the model,aiming to capture the characteristics of disruptive technologies across various lifecycle stages.The study selected seven representative disruptive technologies,including bio-chips and cloud computing,for model training,and employing the XGBoost classification model to learn and identify the lifecycle stages as marked by the Gartner Hype Cycle.Then the study selected next-generation artificial intelligence tech-nology for empirical testing to verify the model's applicability and accuracy.[Result/Conclusion]The results indicate that the lifecycle identification method based on the Gartner Hype Cycle effectively identifies the lifecycle stages of disruptive technologies and identify the turning points in the development of next-generation artificial intelligence technology as occur-ring in 2014,2017,and 2022.Compared to the traditional S-curve model and inverse S-curve model,the method shows higher sensitivity and accuracy in detecting changes and trends in the early development stages of technology,which aids in better understanding the pulse of technological innovation.关键词
颠覆性技术/技术生命周期/Gartner曲线/新一代人工智能/XGBoost模型Key words
disruptive technology/technology life cycle/Gartner hype cycle/next-generation AI technology/XG-Boost model分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
黄颖,张慧,叶冬梅,袁佳..基于Gartner曲线的颠覆性技术生命周期模型构建研究[J].现代情报,2025,45(8):70-84,15.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目"多源数据融合视角下技术会聚的形成机制与预测评估研究"(项目编号:72374162) （项目编号:72374162）
国家自然科学基金项目"科学基金在支撑颠覆性技术发展中的贡献识别与决策优化研究"(项目编号:L2324105). （项目编号:L2324105）
