畜牧与兽医2025，Vol.57Issue(8)：95-99,5.
2023年布氏杆菌病通过从省外调运活羊传入浙江省湖州市养殖场的定量风险评估
Quantitative risk assessment of the introduction of brucellosis into a livestock farm in Huzhou City,Zhejiang Province,through importation of live sheep from outside the province in 2023
摘要
Abstract
To evaluate the risk of brucellosis being introduced into livestock farms in Huzhou City,Zhejiang Province,through the trans-portation of live sheep in 2023,a path scenario tree was drawn.Two risk assessment models were established based on whether isolation and testing were conducted before the transportation of Hu sheep into the farms.The relevant parameters were simulated and calculated using@Risk software.The results showed that the probabilities of introducing brucellosis into the farms in 2023 through the transportation of live sheep without isolation and testing and with isolation and testing were 0.197％(95％CI:0.053％-0.431％)and 0.096％(95％CI:0.024％-0.226％),respectively.It was found that the risk of introducing brucellosis through the transportation of live sheep without isolation and testing was 2.05 times that with isolation and testing.The results of the sensitivity analysis revealed that the herd prevalence rate and in-dividual prevalence rate in the farms were the main risk factors,with correlation coefficients of 0.89 and 0.20,respectively.The research findings suggested that,by controlling from the source of introduction,reducing the herd prevalence rate and individual prevalence rate of the imported live sheep,and strictly conducting isolation and testing after arrival,the risk of introducing brucellosis can be effectively reduced.关键词
布氏杆菌病/调运/定量风险评估Key words
brucellosis/transport/quantitative risk assessment分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
吴雪军,李盛琼,郑思思,张传亮..2023年布氏杆菌病通过从省外调运活羊传入浙江省湖州市养殖场的定量风险评估[J].畜牧与兽医,2025,57(8):95-99,5.基金项目
浙江省"领雁"研发攻关计划项目(2023C02036) （2023C02036）
