眼科新进展2025，Vol.45Issue(8)：644-649,6.DOI:10.13389/j.cnki.rao.2025.0110
孔源性视网膜脱离行巩膜扣带术后黄斑前膜形成风险预测模型构建与验证
Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for epiretinal mem-brane formation after scleral buckling for rhegmatogenous retinal detachment
摘要
Abstract
Objective To explore the risk factors and incidence of epiretinal membrane(ERM)formation following scleral buckling(SB)for rhegmatogenous retinal detachment(RRD),and to construct a risk prediction model to facilitate screening of high-risk populations and prevent ERM formation.Methods RRD patients who underwent SB in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University between February 2022 and April 2024 were included in the study.The pa-tients were divided into occurrence and non-occurrence groups according to whether they developed ERM.Patient data were analyzed,and univariate Cox regression analysis was performed to select variables,which were then incorporated into the multivariate Cox regression model for the identification of risk factors for ERM formation after SB in RRD patients.A predictive model for ERM risk in RRD patients was constructed based on this data,and nomograms,receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves,and calibration curves were drawn to evaluate and validate the diagnostic performance of the model.Results A total of 126 RRD patients(126 eyes)who underwent SB were included.There were 27 cases develo-ping ERM(occurrence group)and 99 not developing ERM(non-occurrence group),with an ERM incidence of 21.4％.Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that a history of diabetes mellitus[Hazard ratio(HR)=3.52,95％CI:1.37-9.02,P=0.009],preoperative proliferative vitreoretinopathy(PVR)(HR=13.00,95％CI:5.18-32.63,P＜0.001),and ≥4 retinal holes(HR=2.33,95％CI:1.04-5.23,P=0.041)were independent influence factors for ERM formation in RRD patients.ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve(AUC)was 0.840(95％CI:0.740-0.940)at 30 days and 0.904(95％CI:0.834-0.975)at 90 days.Conclusion A history of diabetes mellitus,preoperative PVR,and ≥4 retinal holes are factors influencing the development of ERM after SB in RRD patients.It is verified that the risk prediction model constructed based on these factors can accurately predict the risk of ERM formation within 6 months in RRD patients.关键词
孔源性视网膜脱离/巩膜扣带术/黄斑前膜/临床预测模型Key words
rhegmatogenous retinal detachment/scleral buckling/epiretinal membrane/clinical prediction model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
邵昊,姜梦园,房枭荧,王绍伟..孔源性视网膜脱离行巩膜扣带术后黄斑前膜形成风险预测模型构建与验证[J].眼科新进展,2025,45(8):644-649,6.基金项目
白求恩·郞沐科研发展专项基金(编号:070500020262) （编号:070500020262）
