中国地质调查2025，Vol.12Issue(3)：97-107,11.DOI:10.19388/j.zgdzdc.2024.231
基于斜坡单元与AHP-证据权耦合模型的区域地质灾害危险性评价
Regional geological hazard risk assessment based on slope unit and AHP-evidence weight coupling model
摘要
Abstract
Risk assessment is an important means of disaster prevention and mitigation in mountainous areas in the southwestern China.However,most current evaluation systems use models of shallow level and with single indica-tor.To address this problem,the authors in this paper proposed the AHP-evidence weight coupling model to conduct risk issessment of geological hazard in Maerkang.ArcGIS hydrological analysis and human-computer in-teraction were combined to optimize the division of slope units.The study area was divided into 5 695 slope units,and 8 index factors were selected,including rainfall,stratigraphic lithology,slope gradient,slope aspect,dis-tance from water system,distance from fault,and distance from road.AHP-evidence weight coupling model was used to respectively solve the index factor weight value and the contribution of the subordinate intervals to geolog-ical hazard events,and the geological hazard risk zoning map of the study area was obtained.The results show that high-risk areas and extremely high-risk areas account for 14.96％and 8.46％of the total area respective-ly,and these areas are mainly concentrated in residential areas on both sides of the water system.The AUC is 0.78,and the model evaluation accuracy is good.The research results could provide references for the risk as-sessment of regional geological hazards and have guiding significance for the preliminary work of geological hazard investigation in the southwestern mountainous areas.关键词
地质灾害/危险性评价/层次分析法/证据权模型/斜坡单元Key words
geological hazard/risk assessment/AHP(analytic hierarchy process)/evidence weight model/slope unit分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李强,蒙明辉,覃亮,杨沛璋,廖茂权,蒋清明..基于斜坡单元与AHP-证据权耦合模型的区域地质灾害危险性评价[J].中国地质调查,2025,12(3):97-107,11.基金项目
四川省地质调查研究院"川西地质环境脆弱区大型泥石流生态韧性防控关键技术研究(编号:SCIGS-CZDZX-2025005)"、四川省科技厅"四川省三州地区地质灾害防灾减灾科普培训(编号:2023JDKP0010)"、科技部国家重点研发计划"地质灾害防治工程生态耐久关键技术装备研发(编号:2023YFC3007105-06)"项目联合资助. （编号:SCIGS-CZDZX-2025005）
