局解手术学杂志2025，Vol.34Issue(8)：680-685,6.DOI:10.11659/jjssx.12E024056
慢性化脓性中耳炎耳内窥镜术后复发的预测因素与风险量化研究
Predictive factors and risk quantification of recurrence of chronic suppurative otitis media after otoendoscopic surgery
摘要
Abstract
Objective To explore the predictive factors of recurrence of chronic suppurative otitis media(CSOM)after otoendoscopic surgery,and construct a risk quantified nomogram model.Methods The clinical data of 485 patients with CSOM who underwent otoendoscopic surgery in our hospital from February 2021 to February 2023 were retrospectively analyzed.The patients were divided into the recurrence group and the non-recurrence group according to the recurrence situation during the follow-up period.The clinical data of patients between the two groups were compared,and the predictive factors of postoperative recurrence were analyzed by Cox regression method.A risk quantified nomogram model was constructed based on these predictive factors.The predictive efficiency of the model was verified by receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,and the calibration degree of the model was verified by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit analysis,and the clinical net benefit of the model was evaluated by decision curve analysis(DCA)method.Results Follow-up ranged from 6 to 39 months,with a median of 21(11,32)months,the postoperative recurrence rate was 14.64%(71/485).Combined with recurrent upper respiratory tract infections(HR=3.019,95%CI:1.609 to 5.664),combined with chronic rhinosinusitis(HR=2.428,95%CI:1.529 to 3.856),combined with adenoid hypertrophy(HR=2.214,95%CI:1.381 to 3.551),middle ear risk index(MERI)score(HR=2.863,95%CI:1.445 to 5.675),the seven-item eustachian tube dysfunction questionnaire(ETDQ-7)score(HR=2.679,95%CI:1.505 to 4.765)and inadequate drainage of the surgical cavity(HR=2.373,95%CI:1.503 to 3.746)were the risk factors for postoperative recurrence(P<0.05).A risk quantified nomogram model of recurrence after otoendoscopic surgery in CSOM patients was constructed based on the predictive factors of Cox regression analysis,among them the risk value ranges of patients who combined with recurrent upper respiratory tract infections,combined with chronic rhinosinusitis,combined with adenoid hypertrophy,MERI score,ETDQ-7 score,and inadequate drainage of the surgical cavity were 0 to 65 points,0 to 56 points,0 to 52 points,0 to 76 points,0 to 64 points,and 0 to 76 points,respectively.The area under the curve of ROC,sensitivity and specificity of the model for predicting postoperative recurrence were 0.928(95%CI:0.875 to 0.948),85.92%and 88.89%,respectively.There was no significant difference between the predicted probability of postoperative recurrence and the actual probability(P>0.05).The threshold probability of postoperative recurrence predicted by the model in the range of 4%to 92%could obtain clinical net benefit.Conclusion The predictive factors of recurrence after otoendoscopic surgery in CSOM patients include combined with recurrent upper respiratory tract infections,combined with chronic rhinosinusitis,combined with adenoid hypertrophy,MERI score,ETDQ-7 score and inadequate drainage of the surgical cavity,the risk quantified nomogram model based on these factors is highly effective in predicting postoperative recurrence.关键词
慢性化脓性中耳炎/耳内窥镜/复发/预测因素/风险量化列线图模型Key words
chronic suppurative otitis media/otoendoscope/recurrence/predictive factors/risk quantified nomogram model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
刘晨,刘星,宁博,李华超,王驰..慢性化脓性中耳炎耳内窥镜术后复发的预测因素与风险量化研究[J].局解手术学杂志,2025,34(8):680-685,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(82071059) （82071059）
