中国科学院大学学报2025，Vol.42Issue(4)：472-486,15.DOI:10.7523/j.ucas.2024.017
基于ARIMA模型的中亚粮食生产量时空变化分析与预测
Spatial-temporal variation analysis and prediction of grain production in Central Asia based on ARIMA model
摘要
Abstract
The production and supply of food are core components of sustainable development.Ensuring the sustainability of global food production and supply is crucial for maintaining human survival and socioeconomic stability,and it holds significant importance in advancing the"Zero Hunger"goal within the framework of global sustainable development.This paper selects the five key cereal crops,including wheat,barley,maize,oats,and rice,as the subjects of study,focusing on the Central Asian region.It analyzes the variations in yield per hectare,total production,and cultivated area for these cereals from 1992 to 2021,investigates regional disparities in food production fluctuations within Central Asia,and employs the ARIMA model to forecast future grain production in Central Asia.The results showed that:1)From 1992 to 2021,the grain yield,total output and sown area in Central Asia showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing,and the three changes ranged from 0.79～1.96 t/hm2,(0.14～0.37)×108 t and(0.14～0.23)× 108 hm2,respectively.Grain yield and total production reached their peaks in 2011 at 1.96 t/hm2,and 0.37×108 t,respectively,while the cultivated grain area peaked in 1993 at 0.23×108 hm2.2)The grain volatility in Central Asia is characterized by frequent fluctuations in grain production,with a significant proportion of years experiencing fluctuations exceeding 5％.The amplitude of these fluctuations is substantial,and the average fluctuation cycle is 2-4 years,indicating a short-term cyclical pattern dominated by classical rather than growth-oriented fluctuations.3)In the coming years,Central Asia is projected to experience an upward trend in wheat,barley,maize,and oats production,while rice production is expected to decline.Compared to the year 2021,by 2030,Central Asia's wheat,barley,maize,and oats production is estimated to increase by(410.15,91.6,795.26,and 8.91)× 104 t,respectively,representing growth rates of 20.1％,31％,299.2％,and 37.1％.Conversely,rice production may decrease by 15.99×104 t,with a decline of 15.5％.关键词
ARIMA模型/粮食生产量/粮食波动性/产量预测Key words
ARIMA model/grain production/grain production volatility/production forecast分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
高雪梅,董晔,许文强,包安明,钟秀凤..基于ARIMA模型的中亚粮食生产量时空变化分析与预测[J].中国科学院大学学报,2025,42(4):472-486,15.基金项目
第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2022xjkk0701)、青海省"昆仑英才·高端创新创业人才-领军人才"项目(2020-LCJ-02)和新疆维吾尔自治区"天山英才培养"计划(2022TSYCLJ0011)资助 （2022xjkk0701）
