中国医学科学院学报2025，Vol.47Issue(3)：375-381,7.DOI:10.3881/j.issn.1000-503X.16256
基于倾向性评分匹配的老年人新型冠状病毒感染死亡影响因素分析
Analysis of Influencing Factors of Death in the Elderly With Coronavirus Disease 2019 Based on Propensity Score Matching
摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze the influencing factors of death in the elderly with coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19).Methods The case data of death caused by COVID-19 in West China Fourth Hospital from January 1 to July 8,2023 were collected,and surviving cases from the West China Elderly Health Cohort infected with COVID-19 during the same period were selected as the control.LASSO-Logistic regression was adopted to analyze the data after propensity score matching and the validity of the model was verified by drawing the receiver operating characteristic curve.Results A total of 3 239 COVID-19 survivors and 142 deaths with COVID-19 were included.The results of LASSO-Logistic regression showed that smoking(OR=3.33,95％CI=1.46-7.59,P=0.004),stroke(OR=3.55,95％CI=1.15-10.30,P=0.022),malignant tumors(OR=19.93,95％CI=8.52-49.23,P＜0.001),coronary heart disease(OR=7.68,95％CI=3.52-17.07,P＜0.001),fever(OR=0.51,95％CI=0.26-0.96,P=0.042),difficulty breathing or asthma symptoms(OR=21.48,95％CI=9.44-51.95,P＜0.001),and vomiting(OR=8.19,95％CI=2.87-23.58,P＜0.001)increased the risk of death with COVID-19.The prediction model constructed based on the influen-cing factors achieved an area under the curve of 0.889 in the test set.Conclusions Smoking,stroke,malignant tumors,coronary heart disease,fever,breathing difficulty or asthma symptoms,and vomiting were identified as key factors influencing the death risk in COVID-19.关键词
新型冠状病毒感染/影响因素/LASSO回归/倾向性评分匹配Key words
coronavirus disease 2019/influencing factor/LASSO regression/propensity score matching分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
陈莹,黄海平,李鑫,柴思捷,叶家利,周丁子,张韬..基于倾向性评分匹配的老年人新型冠状病毒感染死亡影响因素分析[J].中国医学科学院学报,2025,47(3):375-381,7.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3600604)、四川省预防医学会基层公共卫生专项科研项目(SYYXH202403、SYYXHPT202406)、四川省科技计划项目(2024ZYD0102、2025YFHZ0069)、成都市科技局项目(2024-YF05-01784-SN)、新型冠状病毒感染临床结局分析研究(H230413)和四川天府新区公共卫生中心成果梳理技术咨询服务项目(H230821) （2022YFC3600604）
