中国渔业经济2025，Vol.43Issue(4)：38-46,9.
中国罗非鱼价格波动特征及预测分析
Characteristics and predictive analysis of price fluctuations of Tilapia in China
摘要
Abstract
The study of tilapia price fluctuation characteristics and laws is of great significance to promote the maintenance of supply and stable price of aquatic products and the increase of fishermen's income.This paper takes the monthly price of tilapia in China from January 2018 to May 2025 as the research object,through analyzing the fluctuation law of tilapia price,exploring the key influencing factors affecting the price change,and on the basis of which,using the ARIMA model to predict the trend of the price change of tilapia from June to November 2025,so as to provide reference for the healthy development of China's tilapia market.The results show that the price of tilapia in China exhibits significant seasonal and irregular fluctuation characteristics,and the price is greatly influenced by the ponding quantity,farming cost,and import and export policies.When constructing the prediction model,the ARIMA(1,1,1)model was used for fitting,which achieved more satisfactory results,and the predicted price from June to November 2025 was more stable,fluctuating up and down between RMB 11.08/kg and RMB 11.48/kg.关键词
罗非鱼价格/波动特征/季节性波动/价格预测Key words
the price of Tilapia/fluctuation characteristics/seasonal fluctuation/price forecast of Tilapia分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
姜启军,余婉阳..中国罗非鱼价格波动特征及预测分析[J].中国渔业经济,2025,43(4):38-46,9.基金项目
本文受现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金"国家特色淡水鱼产业技术体系"(CARS-46)资助. （CARS-46）
