中国卒中杂志2025，Vol.20Issue(6)：734-745,12.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-5765.2025.06.009
中国青年缺血性卒中的疾病负担变化趋势分析及预测
Analysis and Prediction of the Trend in Disease Burden of Ischemic Stroke among Chinese Young Adults
王小军 1杨珂珂 1吴健恒 1林铎 1李晨威 1彭慧渊1
作者信息
- 1. 中山 528400 中山市中医院(广州中医药大学附属中山中医院)神经内科
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze the changes in the disease burden of ischemic stroke among Chinese young adults aged 20-49 years from 1990 to 2021,and to predict the incidence of ischemic stroke from 2022 to 2035.
Methods Based on the data from the global burden of disease 2021 database on ischemic stroke among Chinese young adults,the disease prevalence was quantified using age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR)and age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR).The burden of the disease was quantified using disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)and age-standardized DALYs rate(ASDR).This paper analyzed the trends in DALYs associated with risk factors of ischemic stroke among Chinese young adults.The Segmented segmentation model was used to calculate the annual percentage change,and the fitted regression model was used to calculate the estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)to assess the disease trend,while also predicting the incidence rate and number of cases of ischemic stroke among young adults from 2022 to 2035.
Results The ASIR of ischemic stroke among Chinese young adults has increased from 18.28(95％UI 10.85-28.23)/100 000 in 1990 to 24.93(95％UI 16.09-36.88)/100 000 in 2021,with an EAPC of 0.82％(95％CI0.71％-0.92％).The ASMR has decreased from 2.63(95％UI 2.13-3.25)/100 000 in 1990 to 1.88(95％UI 1.49-2.33)/100 000 in 2021,with an EAPC of-1.09％(95％CI-1.25％--0.93％).The ASDR has decreased from 182.87(95％UI150.95-221.94)/100 000 in 1990 to 150.68(95％UI 122.19-180.70)/100 000 in 2021,with an EAPC of-0.64％(95％CI-0.74％--0.54％).The prediction models indicate that by 2035,the ASIR of ischemic stroke among Chinese young adults will rise to 25.40(95％CI22.41-28.40)/100 000,affecting an estimated 132 303(95％CI 116 701-147 906)cases.Among the risk factors,metabolic factors have the greatest impact on DALYs in the young stroke patients,followed by behavioral factors.
Conclusions From 1990 to 2021,the ASIR of ischemic stroke among Chinese young adults showed an upward trend,while the ASDR and ASMR showed a downward trend.By 2035,the disease burden of ischemic stroke among Chinese young adults will still be significant,emphasizing the importance of focusing on the prevention and control of metabolic factors in the future.关键词
缺血性卒中/青年/危险因素/全球疾病负担数据库Key words
Ischemic stroke/Young adult/Risk factor/Global burden of disease分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
王小军,杨珂珂,吴健恒,林铎,李晨威,彭慧渊..中国青年缺血性卒中的疾病负担变化趋势分析及预测[J].中国卒中杂志,2025,20(6):734-745,12.
